If Nikki Haley wins the 2024 presidential election, will the US average over 3% real GDP growth from 2025-2028?
4
37
90
2029
32%
chance

Inspired by DismalScientist's question.

Resolves NA if:

  1. Nikki Haley doesn't win the election.

  2. Or if Haley isn't nominated in the primary (which she needs to run for election).

How I plan to check growth rates

In 2029 I will Google the U.S. real GDP growth rate (which is inflated-adjusted). If the compounded growth rate was >3% (for the 4 years from 2025 to 2028), then I will resolve YES. If it was clearly <3%, then I resolve NO.

Note that simply averaging the yearly growth rates can be misleading. For example: growth of -5% followed by +5% causes a compounded decline of -0.25%. But if you took the simple average from the "-5%" and the "+5%", then you get +/0%, or no average change. The difference is usually tiny for GDP growth. But we'll use the compounded rate, because it's more relevant.

If it's not obvious from a cursory Google search, then I could go to FRED and manually calculate the compounded growth rate. I would show the steps used and remove all doubt.

The resolution date can be extended if finalized GDP figures aren't available yet.

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