When will this close since it is March 1, and he is alive?

@blake yeah what this guy said

@DesTiny See my other comment. Since this is a high-volume market, I've delayed resolution for a bit to make sure there's no late-breaking news.

You'll get your profit tonight.

Congratulations, YES holders! Extend your winnings by rolling them forward in this market:

@BrendanFinan I'll delay closing by 24 hours or so, just to make sure there's no late-breaking news.

Is this an unintentional assassination market?

@EricJang Yes

@LostgoldPlayer Ah, sometimes I forget to mention things that I think are well-known, but maybe aren't. So I'll say it explicitly here (and I'll try to remember to put it on future such markets): If I learn that a bettor used this market as an assassination market, I reserve the right to resolve incorrectly.

It doesn't really matter right now on Manifold, but I think this is a good norm to have on markets where one outcome is clearly viewed as worse than the other.This market is not intended to change behavior.

@ScottLawrence You could exclude assassination as a cause of death

@blake no one is going to assassinate a former president for a funny-money internet market, have some perspective

@jonsimon but they could make a whole $80 worth of play money!

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq#%C2%A7what-are-the-most-common-objections-to-prediction-markets

What about the risk of insider trading by committing harmful / illegal acts? That is, could President Biden’s doctor decide to poison him, then make money when he has to resign due to ill health?

I think the strongest evidence against is that this basically never happens in stock markets. Tesla stock would plummet if Elon Musk died or resigned, but nobody realistically worries that Musk’s doctor will short Tesla and poison him. Lots of corporations’ stocks would sink to zero if you burned down their offices and factories, but nobody shorts them and then commits arson.

Probably this is because there are laws against doing harmful and illegal things, and people have decided that stock market gains aren’t worth breaking the law and getting punished. Since prediction markets have only a tiny fraction of the amount of money that stock markets do, probably people won’t consider it worthwhile to commit harmful actions to manipulate them either. If you were going to murder someone to profit off a market, who would you rather kill: a US politician (the PredictIt market on the presidential election has a volume of about $600,000)? Or a Fortune 500 CEO (whose companies might have market caps in the hundreds of billions)?

For those who want a longer timeline:

Is it at any point on March 1st? So if he dies Mar 1 at 12:01, this resolves yes? And if he dies 2/28 then somehow comes back to life at the end of Mar 1, does it resolve yes?

@blake Correct on all points. And to be clear, this resolves using Eastern time, as that's where Carter lives.

"roughly half of patients who enrolled in hospice died within three weeks"

That sort of gives us a base rate. Since carter was "in and out" of the hospital for "short stays", I think that gives him better health than the median hospice patient. And he enrolled in hospice only 8 days before the end of the month. This should be over 66% imo, not knowing any details of his medical conditions.

@JonathanRay He's also much older than the median hospice patient though. (Not that I'm confident of anything.)

Nah

@ShreyasSArathri Buys yes, comments no.

@ScottLawrence It's called shorting so he can buy more at a better price later. You're so uneducated smh

lol

no more implicit death markets, we only do REAL death markets

In case it becomes relevant (looks like maybe a 2-5% chance): resolution will use Eastern time, as that's where Carter is.