Same as this market, but with a longer timeline:
Jimmy Carter, oh what a man!
Will he survive? That's the plan.
He's tough as nails, that much is clear,
April 1st? He'll still be here.
People putting limit orders for yes doesn’t seem so smart. His death will cause an immediate market crash and you’re gonna be filling limit orders most likely after he’s already fidd
This might be a moon shot, 15% of hospice patients can live up to 6 months and most die within the first 3 weeks. We are over 3 weeks, get hype for the Jimmy Carter minority.
@Haws I am not from the US and I never cared as much for any US president living as now. Live, Jimmy, bring me sweet mana.
Idk man even if it doesn’t happen I feel like the market is about out on this one
@Thagliou Carter has already lasted 3 weeks, I would imagine surviving additional time correlates with even longer timelines.
The next line of that article points out that 12-15% of hospice patients survive 6 months. Conditioned on not dying within 3 weeks (50%) that would put 15/50=~30% chance of making it 6 months, so somewhere between that until the end of this month.
@DanStoyell I haven't looked at the numbers here, but when old people are dying it always feels like hey, there's no movement and maybe they're stable forever until they suddenly do :(. So just on vibes, I'm long this one.
@ShakedKoplewitz Fwiw I also expect this market to continually go up until it suddenly drops
we're getting close to the Jim Horizon where I will start selling my shares here to bet against GPT-4 being released by April
@AlexKChen That says she "feels like" he has some time. Nothing about whether he actually does
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