What will U.S. Federal spending be as a percentage of GDP in 2030? | Manifold

What will U.S. Federal spending be as a percentage of GDP in 2030?

US Politics Economics

Mini

5

Ṁ62

2031

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Source for resolution: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYONGDA188S.

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A historical prior suggests 25-30%. I don't expect this market to be able to resolve the typical ~5% fluctuations, so I might have to create further markets on this topic to get a sense of the size of tail probabilities.

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