Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves MKT in 10 years)
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23%
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For the purposes of this question, it's sufficient if U.S. intelligence services took meaningful and deliberate action to cause the assassination (e.g. paying somebody else to do it).
I will differ from simple PROB resolution conservatively, only to avoid market failures. For instance, I may randomize the precise close time, or use the probability from the day before close. I will not be betting in this market.
Jan 24, 12:07pm: Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves PROB in 10 years) → Was JFK assassinated by U.S. intelligence services? (Resolves MKT in 10 years)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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how will the market resolve? who judges (in 10 years) whether JFK was assassinated by inteligence services? edit: nvm, I see it resolves to PROB
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