@ScipioFabius Market has reached $2.2 billion according to the UI. Can you resolve this already?

@Simon74fe No need to be angry. Resolved.

@ScipioFabius Sorry, I didn’t mean to sound angry. I was just asking because I wasn’t sure if it could be resolved

@Simon74fe My bad too, I misread your tone. All good :)

Majority of election market volume historically traded after October. Source

@PlainBG Good read, though, this is a sample size of one, and betfair is very much not polymarket.

@ScipioFabius All sorts of markets trade most heavily right before closing. Activity leading up to the election day and the election night itself (and potentially days after) will be substantial.

@PlainBG Looks like you are absolutely spot on with this. I have been keeping tracking of the volume since early august and it just now completely detached from the roughly linear trend it was on:

@ScipioFabius there was the VP debate this week but yeah I expect superlinear trend from now on

whether Kalshi and Interactive Brokers will cut into the market share is an interesting factor, I'm skeptical because they've launched too late

@PlainBG They certainly seem targeted at different people, and Kalshi is much closer to Poly then IB, but yeah, too late and too little volume / word-of-mouth.

I'm genuinely surprised with the market getting above 20% for the top end.

@ScipioFabius I'm not

@nikki Me neither now