This market resolves YES if an odd number of the following conditions are true on Monday, July 15 at 8:35 UTC time and resolves NO if an even number (including zero) are true on Monday, July 15 at 8:35 UTC time. This market resolves N/A if for some reason it is impossible to evaluate any of the conditions below.

CONDITION ONE:

((England won Euro 2024) AND (My poll on whether this is the worst market ever has more YES voters than NO voters) AND (Biden has not dropped out))

OR ((TSLA stock is above 285 / share) AND (Elon Musk has sent at least three tweets (not reposts) on Monday, July 15 by 8:35 UTC time))

OR ((The FiveThirtyEight generic ballot polling average shows Democrats winning by at least 0.7% on Sunday, July 14) AND (Manifold has more than 1500 DAUs on Sunday, July 14) AND (TSLA stock is below 295 / share)

AND (Noam Chomsky is alive))

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION TWO:

(((Harry Kane scored a goal in the Euro final) OR (Elon Musk has endorsed Donald Trump for president) OR (Obama has publicly called for Biden to drop out)) AND (Cannabis has not been rescheduled) AND (Biden has not banned menthol cigarettes))

OR ((Trump has announced his vice presidential running mate) AND (Claude 3.5 Sonnet successfully predicts the resolution of at least half of the other conditions in this market)

OR (Andrew Tate is found guilty of human sex trafficking)

OR (Joe Biden has announced he will drop out of the 2024 presidential race)

OR (This market - https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-an-llm-be-able-to-solve-confus - has resolved YES)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION THREE:

((Someone correctly points out mismatched parentheses in these resolution criteria) AND (My poll on whether this is the worst market ever has more NO voters than YES voters))

OR (((The Euro final is 0-0 in regular time) OR (Spain scores a penalty kick in the Euro final)) AND ((Israel has not invaded Lebanon in 2024) AND (A ceasefire in Gaza has not been declared in 2024)))

OR (Someone dies of H51N1 bird flu in America in 2024)

OR (Trump and Biden agree to a golf match)

OR ((The S&P 500 is up on July 12) AND (Taylor Swift has not endorsed Joe Biden for the 2024 US presidential election) AND (Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released))

OR (Noam Chomsky is dead)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION FOUR:

((Condition One, Condition Two, and Condition Three are all false)

OR (Condition One, Condition Two, and Condition Three are all true)

OR (Sonia Sotomayor announces retirement from the Supreme Court in 2024)

OR (Trump has announced Marco Rubio as his Vice President)

OR (Silver is above $30.50)

OR (WTI crude futures on this site - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html - are above 87/bbl)

OR ((WTI crude futures on that site are below 77 / bbl) AND (My poll on whether this is the worst market ever is not tied))

OR (The Economist presidential model gives Trump a 45% or higher chance of winning Minnesota on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time)

OR (The Economist presidential model gives Biden a 66% or higher chance of winning Michigan on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time))

AND ((Joe Biden has not dropped out of the presidential race)

OR (A tropical storm forms anywhere in the world between July 11 and July 15))

OR (This market - https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-an-llm-be-able-to-solve-confus - has resolved YES)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION FIVE:

((Condition Three is false) AND (Sonia Sotomayor announces retirement from the Supreme Court in 2024) OR (Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released))

OR ((Bing Chat / Microsoft Copilot refuses to predict the resolution of this market when given a link) AND (This space weather page does not show G none on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/))

OR (Trump posts about Nancy Pelosi on Truth Social on July 15)

OR ((The Euro final goes to extra time) AND (I ask the random number generator bot to generate a number from 1 to 3 and it picks 3))

OR (Grok 2 has been released)

OR (The price of gold on https://goldprice.org is above $35 on July 15 at 8:35 UTC)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION SIX:

(At least one of Conditions One through Five is false)

AND ((Less than 500000 people in Houston do not have power on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time) OR (The price of BTC on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time is above 60000))

OR (Joe Biden has announced he will drop out of the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION SEVEN:

((Joe Biden has not announced he will drop out of the presidential race)

AND (Elon Musk has not endorsed Joe Biden)

AND (Nobody gets a red card during the Euro final game)

AND (Argentina wins Copa America 2024)

AND (Bitcoin does not hit 66,000 in July 2024)

AND (GameStop has not filed a class action lawsuit against Roaring Kitty)

AND (At least one of Condition Five and Condition Six is true)

AND (At least one of Condition Three and Condition Six is true))

OR (Any album released on July 12 has a score of 3.9 or higher on RateYourMusic with at least 1000 ratings)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION EIGHT:

((More goals are scored in the Euro final than the Copa America final) AND (Apple stock increases on July 12))

OR ((Apple stock decreases on July 12) AND (GPT-5 has not been released) AND (Claude 3.5 Opus has not been released))

OR ((Every other condition is false) AND (TSLA stock decreases on July 12))

OR ((Mr. Beast releases a new video between July 11 and July 15) AND (Condition One is true))

OR ((Mr. Beast has 301M subscribers) AND (Spain wins the Euro final in regular time) AND (Argentina wins the Copa America final in regular time))

OR (Guyana and Venezuela have a military conflict in 2024)

OR ((Gemini incorrectly predicts how Condition Seven will resolve) AND (Noam Chomsky is alive))

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

I reserve the right to correct mistakes in the market resolution criteria (e.g. mismatched parens) before July 13. After that, what's written stands.

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