Michigan voted to the left of these two states in 2016 and 2020, and has generally voted to their left in non-presidential elections as well. Since Gaza, presidential polling has consistently showed Michigan ~4 points to the right of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Will this pattern in the polls show up in the election results?

This market resolves YES if the percentage of votes for the Republican candidate subtracted from the percentage of votes for the Democrat candidate is higher in Michigan than in both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If there is a recount in any of these states, the market will not resolve until the recount is complete.