Resolves UTC, subtropical storms also count for the purpose of this market
For a tropical storm to be named Gabrielle, a different tropical storm must be named Fernand first
1,000for the 12Z ensembles, looks like 99L is the only game in town, and it doesn't look good.
EPS and GEPS are the most bullish of the bunch at 30% each. EPS thinks its already a TS. GEPS thinks if it happens it will happen in a couple days or so.
I want to say the google ensemble was extremely precise and bullish about 90L becoming a TS on the 23rd for like the last week or so, much more so than the other ensembles, and it doesn't think much of anything about 99L.
Looking at the guidance I agree with you, but it also feels like models have been overly pessimistic so far, this captures it well: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1959378103932793168