Aletta a TS

Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory.

I don't know if it stays a TS in the final best track when they do the reports some months down the line: looked so marginal given the convection in the last few hours

SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T 
numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. 

Edit: nevermind they were referring to subjective:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2024/bulletins/epac/20240704180001E.html

They've fed it as a TS into the computer models. Mixed bag from satellite analysis though:

D-PRINT still has it as a TS:

ADT objective from OSPO,CIMSS puts it at a TD still though (CI = 2.2,2.1)

Deep convection appears to have stopped in last hour two so with such variable strength maybe it will remain a TD despite this...

SATCON MSW puts it at 32kt just on the border:

The current invest has been designated as a tropical depression. It is not expected to become a tropical storm.

Yes but even they hedge on an advisory with that:

"it is possible that the system could briefly strengthen into a tropical storm, though not explicitly forecast."

Is there any model support?

Model, not that I've seen, but ....

DPRINT has been putting it at TS but it's on the high end.

I tried betting up July 4 but its not working. Submitted a bug report.

possible / barely limit?

I can't bet on anything, seems the whole market is broken

Ok I sold all my shares in all the options. It seems to have fixed it? Somehow my bets bugged it.

Looking good for TS at 15Z

None of the latest global model guidance cycle shows genesis for the near term any more.

But NHC has 60%. Seems strange?

Looking at phase analysis from the 12Z models its right on the margins (mostly not a TC at least at 12Z) deep warm core/symmetric (CMC shows it barely then as a TC) but the trend is negative.

Did see some momentary banding from the spin that is present and some pulsating convection (over my guess for the center of storm) in the last hour or two:

Some small neutral-unfavorable mid-level shear not helping it though?

The vis looked momentarily like it might have a decent chance of developing earlier:

4 of the global models predicted genesis of a short lived TC in the last 24 hours (now ECM). GFS shows a slightly less stable storm as a weak TS/TD (ECM as a TD). NHC is bullish though keeping it at 50% I suppose because of the lack of development + wind shear...

GFS/NAV (18Z) and CMC (12Z) now all show it becoming TS by July 3rd (06Z or 12Z).:

(From left to right on genesis, is CMC, NAV, GFS)

(Edit) annotated:

CMC,GFS 00Z, still show genesis of a short lived TD, but only CMC shows it at a stable TS for a short time, while GFS isn't stable at a TS (only momentarily reaching it)..

Some support on the GEFS for a TS forming July 1 / July 2. Nothing on the EPS though

(According to some quick calculations referencing https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/hurdat/hurdat2-nepac-1949-2023-042624.txt)

The latest named storm formed during the regular season (>=May 15) of recorded TS from the start of the satellite era (>=1979) is July 2, 2016.

Given Other is at 80%+, it looks like we will be breaking another record in ~5 days.