Intensity market is up: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-93r7unfai1?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA

@SaviorofPlant can resolve as It is OFCL now as of 10:47PM:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#02L
calling it Beryl

I would bet they pull the naming and vitals from the COM directory or some similar mirror:

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/com/?C=M;O=D

I read on a educational/training type powerpoint (last year?) that it was not absolutely definitive that the NHC forecaster couldn't change their mind on the advisory in between feeding the computer models and the advisory time. (I was going to switch my bet to 85% on June 28 on seeing the latest fixes/IR before the TAFB fix and then the subsequent .com updates)

This is technically possible, but I have never seen it happen

@SaviorofPlant This would be a fun market to annotate 😉

AL, 02, 202406290000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  ,  920N,  4390W,      , 2,  35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , L,  TAFB,  NR,   VI, 3, 2525 /////,      ,   , GOES16,  CSC, T, 

TAFB 00Z at TS strength. Along with other fixes it looks like it will likely be rated a TS at 11PM.

Latest model input data has it as a TS as well (CARQ):

AL, 02, 2024062900, 01, CARQ,   0,  92N,  427W,  35, 1006, TS,  34, NEQ,   40,    0,    0,   40, 1011,  150,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,   X, 275,  16,      BERYL, M, 

I always want to know how many barbs do you have to see for it to be a large enough part of the wind field for it to count:

12H  29/0600Z  9.4N  44.5W   35 KT

But we don't get forecast for 6 hours

well perhaps this:

Accordingly, the official forecast calls for strengthening and shows
the depression becoming a tropical storm tonight or early Saturday
and then a hurricane before it reaches the Windward Islands. 

(from the discussion)

will likely be classified a TC at least TD strength in next hour (renamed fixes and another tab dvts fix as 2.0/2.0 for 18Z). If it's not declared a TS then that leaves only 11 pm for today...

"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC)."

Might be time for third Atlantic named storm of 2024 market. Can we have multichoice any number market, 'On or after date' style so old ones can be resolved?

I like this format because the liquidity stacks - you can get all 1000 mana put in to the market for getting the correct date. I'll create Chris and Debby markets soon

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/when-will-a-tropical-storm-be-named-sf0ekb2un4

TWO 8am on AL95:

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined.  Showers and 
thunderstorms are also showing signs of organization, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on 
Saturday. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph 
and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. 
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.  For 
more information, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2PM TWO. Edit (forgot TC advisories on different time step then outlooks): Looks like they'll wait to 5PM/11PM to classify it? (Comments don't seem bullish as a TS today though.)

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A low pressure system located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the 
Windward Islands is becoming better defined and the associated 
showers and thunderstorms are increasing in organization. If these 
trends continue, a tropical depression will likely form later today. 
This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and 
approach the Windward Islands by the end of the weekend, and 
Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions 
of that region tonight or early Saturday. For more information, 
including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

New deep convection in the last couple of hours:

More spin (more relative vorticity from low to (now) mid troposphere):

850mb (OSPO analysis) showed up to 80 kt winds at that level at 12Z:

Latest Surface winds (satellite) analysis continues to have a few TS level winds close to the center:

The lack of convection at 12Z matches GFS phase analysis showing no warm core at 12Z (will have to wait until 18Z run analysis to see whether it thinks the recent convection is indicative of a warm core for the remaining slim chance of 6/28 becoming a TS at 8PM):

Dvorak:

Fixes from TAFB have rated it at TD intensity (2.0/2.0) for the last 3 synoptic intervals (00, 06, 12Z)

SAB has started publishing its first fix (as 1.0/1.0) for 12Z

Despite rain ambiguities looks like there is a clear LLCC earlier today

36kt from satellite sources with pressure of 1006

Now mesoscale imagery this morning, first light:

Microwave imagery:

not much deep convection visible from IR:

Latest Visible:

Deep convection has stopped for the last few hours and shear increasing around 40W making it less likely to develop.

GFS/00Z also doesn’t show a warm core until 29/00Z cutting it perhaps too close..

NHC TWO has increased genesis probabilities to 70%/90% (48h/7days).

Increasing bet on (late) June 28 after reviewing model guidance, seeing TAFB subjective dvorak CI of 2.0 (TD), and 5 straight hours of deep convection on IR. 28/00Z fix:

AL, 95, 202406280000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  ,  990N,  3730W,      , 2,  30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , L,  TAFB,  NR,   VI, 3, 2020 /////,      ,   , GOES16,  CSC, T, 

The regional models (as well as CMC 12Z) show AL95 having max winds at TS strength by 29/00Z (in time for 8 PM advisory), with the question remaining of whether it will look organized enough to categorize it as a TS by tomorrow night.

NHC 2PM TWO:

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

comparison of simulated IR (GFS, HAFS A/B) to actual for 06Z models (only 2-3 steps):

https://raw.githubusercontent.com/JRPdata/wastebook/main/simulated_ir_comparison_AL95_2024-06-27.gif

Revisiting 95L doesn't seem to impressive yet but ECM is also now predicting genesis and CMC shows now a slightly larger storm, so that makes 3 models.

Here are the most recent runs with the earliest times where Vmax @ 10m in ROCI > 34 kt:

CMC 12Z: 29/18Z

GFS 12Z: 30/00Z

ECM 12Z: 30/06Z

4 models all taking it to hurricane ?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_intensity_latest.png

DSHP and LGEM are just statistical models though... but yes the three global models from 12Z all show it nearing or exceeding hurricane strength:

ECM:

Max 10m Wind Speed Valid Time: 2024-07-05T12:00:00

AL Basin, Latitude (deg:): 17.2, Longitude (deg): -82.8, MSLP (hPa): 961.7, ~ROCI (km): 359

850 RV MAX (*10^-5 1/s): 182.51, 250-850 hPa Thickness (m): 9688.48, 925 hPa WS MAX (m/s): 50.93

10m WS MAX (knots) in ~ROCI: 115.9, Isobar delta (hPa) (MSLP for OCI - minimum): 46

CMC:

Max 10m Wind Speed Valid Time: 2024-07-02T06:00:00

AL Basin, Latitude (deg:): 13.5, Longitude (deg): -63.3, MSLP (hPa): 990.9, ~ROCI (km): 237

850 RV MAX (*10^-5 1/s): 182.24, 250-850 hPa Thickness (m): 9650.97, 925 hPa WS MAX (m/s): 46.05

10m WS MAX (knots) in ~ROCI: 63.0, Isobar delta (hPa) (MSLP for OCI - minimum): 19

GFS:

Max 10m Wind Speed Valid Time: 2024-07-02T06:00:00

AL Basin, Latitude (deg:): 12.8, Longitude (deg): -65.5, MSLP (hPa): 988.4, ~ROCI (km): 171

850 RV MAX (*10^-5 1/s): 221.30, 250-850 hPa Thickness (m): 9625.21, 925 hPa WS MAX (m/s): 50.69

10m WS MAX (knots) in ~ROCI: 70.6, Isobar delta (hPa) (MSLP for OCI - minimum): 22