Intensity market: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-be-the-maximum-intensity-8iievz2dt7?play=true

Follow-up Joyce market: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/when-will-a-tropical-or-subtropical-ohnmiuo7p2

They took that shortly quite literally

Unusual special update

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/260243_MIATWOAT.shtml

For AL99

Recently-received 
satellite wind data has revealed that the low is no longer attached 
to a frontal boundary and is producing a concentrated area of 
tropical-storm-force winds near the center. If these trends 
continue, this system is likely to become a tropical storm shortly. 

For 98L in the Central Tropical Atlantic: looks like the threshold for 50 TCHP is around 37W for the track of 98L. From the tcvitals, it's estimated storm speed of about 13 knots, the along-track error for a superensemble, and the members' timing themselves, it seems it will cross 37W tomorrow morning (26th around 06-12Z). This matches the predictions for the most likely day for it to become a named storm from looking at GEFS (the 26th). On the con side for it developing a bit later, there is some drier air around 40W (as well as currently some wind shear there) and even more drier air north of it (around 20N), and will seemingly continue to pull it in the next few days (based on it's track) that might slow its development. For now it is in a low wind shear environment good for development for tomorrow if it holds. From vorticity analysis from CIMSS, it seems fairly well all lined up from the lower to the upper troposphere; however, it only has about relative vorticity of ~ 50 at the moment at 850 mb.

Accidentally bet on the wrong date earlier (meant to bet up 26th but bet up primarly 27th by accident)

Why does https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#99L
give 99L a name of genesis027 ?

@ChristopherRandles As a guess, genesis027 is likely the internal name for the disturbance from their genesis tracker in their database to track potential tropical cyclone candidates information. When they create an invest some of the data from prior to the invest is temporarily (or sometimes longer) kept. (I don't recall if its kept sometimes in the fixes or the model files tracking data, but at least one of them I've seen it plenty of times before -- i.e. like tcvitals and their dat files). Sometimes (usually) it gets removed once the Invest has been open for some hours. It showed up their on the website since that's how public websites track these storms (through tcvitals and the fixes).

@ChristopherRandles Found where I've seen it again... it's in the best tracks

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal092024.dat (for instance Helene was genesis 023)

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal102024.dat (Isaac was 027)