What will happen before July relating to the motion to vacate Mike Johnson? [ADD ANSWERS]

House Speaker•US Politics•Politics•118th Congress•Speaker of the House election

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Jul 2

ALL

93%

At least one Democrat will vote to keep Mike Johnson as speaker or to table the motion to vacate

78%

Another Republican announces they will resign from the House before the end of the 118th Congress

78%

At least one Freedom Caucus member will be removed from a committee

44%

At least twelve Republicans will vote to remove Mike Johnson

40%

The FiveThirtyEight generic 2024 ballot average will show Democrats winning by 2% or more as its permanent listed value for any day

36%

The House rules will be changed to raise the threshold for the motion to vacate

23%

Two or more separate votes will be held on motions to vacate the speaker

16%

The motion to vacate (not a motion to table) will be voted on by the full House

11%

Mike Johnson will cease to be Speaker of the House

A Democrat will become Speaker of the House

Resolved

YES

Trump will make a statement of any kind supporting Mike Johnson

On April 16, Thomas Massie sponsored the motion to vacate Mike Johnson: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/04/16/congress/massie-joins-greene-00152463

This makes two Republicans calling for his ouster, which would result in his ejection if every Democrat also votes to vacate the speakership.

I will resolve any option that is not plausibly related to the motion to vacate N/A.

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