What will happen before July relating to the motion to vacate Mike Johnson? [ADD ANSWERS]
42
293
1.5k
Jul 2
63%
The FiveThirtyEight generic 2024 ballot average will show Democrats winning by 2% or more as its permanent listed value for any day
60%
Another Republican announces they will resign from the House before the end of the 118th Congress
32%
The House rules will be changed to raise the threshold for the motion to vacate
32%
At least one Freedom Caucus member will be removed from a committee
27%
Two or more separate votes will be held on motions to vacate the speaker
9%
Mike Johnson will cease to be Speaker of the House
8%
At least twelve Republicans will vote to remove Mike Johnson
7%
The motion to vacate (not a motion to table) will be voted on by the full House
3%
A Democrat will become Speaker of the House
Resolved
YES
At least one Democrat will vote to keep Mike Johnson as speaker or to table the motion to vacate
Resolved
YES
Trump will make a statement of any kind supporting Mike Johnson

On April 16, Thomas Massie sponsored the motion to vacate Mike Johnson: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/04/16/congress/massie-joins-greene-00152463

This makes two Republicans calling for his ouster, which would result in his ejection if every Democrat also votes to vacate the speakership.

I will resolve any option that is not plausibly related to the motion to vacate N/A.

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At least one Democrat will vote to keep Mike Johnson as speaker or to table the motion to vacate
bought Ṁ693 At least one Democra... YES
No rule votes will pass during the week of April 15 - April 21 (after this answer was created)

Does anyone know a convenient resource to check this?

bought Ṁ175 No rule votes will p... NO

@SaviorofPlant this resolves no- the House just adopted a rule on the foreign aid bill

bought Ṁ3 The FiveThirtyEight ... NO

@SemioticRivalry Yeah I saw your bet and immediately checked lol

Trump will make a statement of any kind supporting Mike Johnson

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-message-mike-johnson-future-1891105

Well, we'll see what happens with that," the former president told a Bloomberg reporter on Tuesday evening after being asked about a motion to vacate the speaker's chair, outside a Manhattan bodega during a presidential campaign trail visit—having just hours prior appeared in court at his criminal hush money trial.

Trump added: "I think he's a very good person."

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