What will be the maximum strength of Hurricane Beryl after entering the Gulf of Mexico?
Standard
21
Ṁ8710
resolved Jul 8
100%34%
Category 1 hurricane
6%
Beryl dissipates or does not enter the GoM
40%
Tropical storm
12%
Category 2 hurricane
4%
Category 3 hurricane
1.7%
Category 4 hurricane
1.2%
Category 5 hurricane

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Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
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MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/081158.shtml
Weakened not strengthened so can resolve cat 1.

There were a couple of updates between 39 and 39A where winds were still 80mph
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/BERYL.shtml?

In the scenario where Beryl's last advisory over water is a category lower than its first advisory over land, I think I'll resolve to the intensity over land. TCs are unlikely to intensify over land, so the advisory point over land being higher implies the storm increased in intensity between advisories when it was over water.

This scenario is pretty unlikely to play out, but if anyone has any objections, now's the time to articulate them.

makes sense so between now (cat 1) and the 1st advisory after landfall, it becoming cat 2 at that advisory resolves this as cat 2?

Yes

Yeah, I took this to mean "up and until." Ah, well.

hit cat 5 in the eastern carribean just now

reposted

Betting will be open for 48 hours. Intensity prior to entering the Gulf of Mexico does not matter for resolution of this question

do you think it will intensify after entering the gulf?

It should, but it's projected to make landfall in Mexico first, so it is unlikely to be at anything close to its current strength when it first enters

will this resolve as the strength when it first enters or the highest strength it gets to while being in the gulf?

Maximum in the gulf

thank you