IMO I think this market close date was a bit too early to be useful, or rather, the uncertainty is too high to make a good prediction given the uncertainty in the storm's track and how much further this storm will continue to be around -- it looks likely to me it won't even reach peak intensity for another 7+ days?

I feel less confident as 12 bettors disagree.

Are they relying on the 5-day NHC forecast, or climatology, or extended model forecasts (like the EPS one below that only goes out 10 days)?

I would appreciate it if any bettors care to share their reasoning...

(I'm not recommending/requesting re-opening this particular question for betting as I think it is interesting to leave it as is...)

@parhizj >"IMO I think this market close date was a bit too early to be useful, or rather, the uncertainty is too high to make a good prediction"
Agree

I have no idea and have only bet down depression and weak tropical storm.

@parhizj Since this is a plus market, you can make quite a bit of mana even with a wide probability distribution (my bet of Cat 3 25% -> 35% and Cat 4 10% -> 17% will earn around 1000 mana if either of those predictions play out correctly...although I'll lose a similar amount of mana if they don't, as the NHC forecast predicts). If I leave a high-liquidity market like this open long enough for traders to make accurate predictions, thousands of the mana put into the liquidity will flow to traders and I won't get them back, which isn't sustainable as a market creator in the long term.

I've created an experimental live trading Basic market version though. Since this one is basic, you'll need to place limit orders and find someone who disagrees to make a significant profit, but maybe we have enough traders willing to do that?

https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-be-the-maximum-intensity-0cda3rculg?play=true

@SaviorofPlant Your point is well taken. My only probability distribution would have been hurricane 90+%.... even if I could make mana making by betting all such categories equal (essentially betting that it's unpredictable) it seems kind of pointless to do so? (Or maybe not?) This is a version of the question in philosophy in probability, whether they should/can have more than a YES/NO truth value.... YES/NO and unknown, etc. but applied to a multiple choice in this case.

Made this one a plus market, lots of mana to be earned from good forecasting

@SaviorofPlant There aren't enough tropical storms in the world for me to stay in Masters now that I've finally made it in...

Trickiest part might be how much the ocean cools in Kirk's wake as mentioned in the NHC discussion....

Edit: After looking at the track spread from the earlier ensembles, I believe it's too early to bet... as I don't even know whether it will go west of Kirk's track or even recurve east of Kirk and 10 days out may not yet quite be even the peak of the intensity for some of the westerly members...