What will be the maximum intensity of Hurricane Kirk?
Standard
12
Ṁ6569
resolved Oct 7
100%60%
Category 4 hurricane
0.6%
Weak tropical storm (35 - 45 kt)
0.7%
Strong tropical storm (50 - 60 kt)
0.9%
Category 1 hurricane
0.9%
Category 2 hurricane
16%
Category 3 hurricane
21%
Category 5 hurricane

Resolves according to operational intensity, not postseason adjustments.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

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Now 125 kt, expected to reach a peak cat.4 of ~ 135 kt in 12 hours..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/040232.shtml?. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

bought Ṁ35 Category 5 hurricane YES

Latest NHC advisory increased peak intensity to 130 kt

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/030238.shtml

Models are going to be inaccurate until the next runs updated on this:

The hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

55 kt increase in 24 hours...

As high as 30% of it reaching 135 kt, 22% reaching 140 kt

20% of EPS/00Z members have it reaching 925 hPa, 94% reaching 947 hPa ...

CIMSS AI-RI:

NHC forecasting a CAT4 now in the 11 am advisory ....

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/021447.shtml

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