What will be the maximum intensity of Hurricane Kirk?

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Ṁ6569

resolved Oct 7

ALL

100%60%

Category 4 hurricane

0.6%

Weak tropical storm (35 - 45 kt)

0.7%

Strong tropical storm (50 - 60 kt)

0.9%

Category 1 hurricane

0.9%

Category 2 hurricane

16%

Category 3 hurricane

21%

Category 5 hurricane

Resolves according to operational intensity, not postseason adjustments.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

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Now a cat 4…

Now 125 kt, expected to reach a peak cat.4 of ~ 135 kt in 12 hours..

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/040232.shtml?. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 48.6W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

bought Ṁ35 Category 5 hurricane YES

Latest NHC advisory increased peak intensity to 130 kt

Models are going to be inaccurate until the next runs updated on this:

The hurricane has strengthened 55 kt since 0300 UTC last night, which means Kirk lands at a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

55 kt increase in 24 hours...

As high as 30% of it reaching 135 kt, 22% reaching 140 kt

20% of EPS/00Z members have it reaching 925 hPa, 94% reaching 947 hPa ...

CIMSS AI-RI:

NHC forecasting a CAT4 now in the 11 am advisory ....

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