Resolves EST. Resolves other if someone else is nominated before she announces VP
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I believe Harris will announce her VP the week of 7/29-8/3.
Note: Screenshot (bottom) confirms the various DNC dates I discuss below.
I reason that since all major democratic candidates who might reasonably oppose Harris have endorsed her, she will be unopposed by anyone (including minor players).
According to the NH Bulletin (and The Guardian), if there is only a single presidential candidate, the DNC will hold their virtual roll call vote on August 1.
The virtual roll call is in all ways equal to a standard in-person roll call.
The virtual roll call is being done to avoid any chance of ballot litigation due to state election deadlines (Ohio).
If the virtual roll call is the real roll call and the goal is to avoid ballot litigation issues, you would want to have the VP candidate nominated concurrently with the presidential candidate.
Therefore, I reason Harris’ VP announce will occur before the Aug 1 virtual roll call.
Screenshot from:
Dates backed up in The Guardian:
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/24/dnc-democrats-kamala-harris-nomination
Additional:
I believe Harris will announce her VP on July 31st itself. The article says the last day for presidential candidates to run is July 30, 6 pm. I figure Harris will wait for the “all clear” she's the sole nominee. Then announce on 7/31. There is a manifold poll that allows you to vote on the actual day (see bottom). If this weekly market hadn't existed I’d have traded Yes on 7/31 over there. I reason Harris will want to take as much time to vet as possible before the 8/1 roll call (especially after seeing the Vance rollout). That makes 7/31 the most logical day.
However, I decided to avoid risk and not trade an individual day in that market because:
a) Maybe Harris feels confident about her pick and makes it a bit early. Maybe even on 7/30 (after 6pm) when she would know she is the sole nominee.
b) While I reason Harris would nominate her VP concurrently with herself on 8/1, the DNC’s hard stop deadline is 8/7. It’s possible she decides to be extra cautious and take the max amount of time to vet her VP candidate and waits until 8/7.
c) For the record, I believe that even if a minor candidate announces before 7/30 - which pushes the proposed roll call date to 8/3 - I speculate the Harris team’s current timetable is to announce on 8/1 - since they anticipate not even token opposition. Therefore, even if Harris did get token opposition, they’d proceed with their 7/31 rollout, even though, in that case they would have until 8/3.
Main reason Harris might wait until the drop-dead deadline of 8/7:
d) Since 1992 the shortest VP timeline from presumptive nominee (either by final opponent suspending or they had enough votes to secure the nomination) to announcement was 1992 - Clinton - 37 days. (Presumptive nominee on 6/2; Gore announced 7/9).
e) If we assume Harris started operating as the presumptive nominee when Biden dropped out on 7/21, my prediction date of 7/31 is just 11 days of vetting. Waiting until 8/7 gives them 64% more time to vet. And they really don't want a Vance situation.
f) On the other hand, McCain in 2008 had the longest vetting period (presumptive to announcement) since 1992 of 178 days (3/4-8/29). As reported by NYT on 5/22/08, FL Gov. Charlie Christ filled out a VP questionnaire at the campaign’s request (that date or before). Even if McCain’s team didn't start vetting on 3/4, from 5/22, that’s still at least 99 days to vet (and they still ended up with Palin).
g) However, in “Game Changers”, McCain senior campaign advisor Stephen Schmidt says that Palin was first considered on 8/24. It also states McCain offered Palin the role at his ranch in person on 8/28. Palin’s announcement date was 8/29. So that was 4, maybe 5 true days of vetting for the person they actually selected. So maybe the Harris team will feel every extra vetting day counts on such a short timeline.
Manifold market for exact day of Harris pick:
https://manifold.markets/BlueDragon/-short-fuse-when-will-kamala-harris
https://www.npr.org/2024/07/26/g-s1-13338/kamala-harris-joe-biden-dnc-democrat-nominee
Per this source, August 7 is the accelerated party deadline.