[Add answers] What can each Manifold user be convinced of in the next month? (Debate market)
20
1.1kṀ3996
resolved May 25
Resolved
YES
75% or more of the debate answers in this market resolve NO
Resolved
YES
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced that P(doom) < 99%
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced to stop using caffeine for a month or more
Resolved
NO
Two debate answers added by separate users in this market resolve YES
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced that this is a stupid market idea
Resolved
NO
@TimothyJohnson5c16 can be convinced to vote for any Republican for a California statewide office in the November 2024 election
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced to spend 100 dollars on anything they wouldn't have otherwise bought
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced to sell a 100 mana or more position in any market they wouldn't have otherwise sold
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced that LLM chatbots are not meaningfully agentic
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced that the chance of GPT-5 causing doom is <1%
Resolved
NO
@NBAP can be convinced to accept an eternity in limbo (empty white void) in the afterlife in exchange for some earthly reward in life.
Resolved
NO
@dglid can be convinced that the Manifold Pivot is a bad business decision by the Manifold team
Resolved
NO
@SaviorofPlant can be convinced to stop using Manifold
Resolved
NO
Any single user causes at least 3 answers in this market to resolve YES by winning debates
Resolved
NO
@JamesF can be convinced that P(doom) >50%
Resolved
NO
Any comment in this market will have more than 100 replies engaging in meaningful debate
Resolved
NO
@NBAP can be convinced that an eternity in a heavenly afterlife is as desirable (or more) than an eternity in a hellish afterlife is undesirable.
Resolved
NO
@RobertCousineau can be convinced to take 21 days off nicotine products
Resolved
NO
@Bayesian can be convinced not to donate his remaining nw to charity
Resolved
NO
@Bayesian can be convinced that digital computers can never become conscious

This is an experimental market where you can add a belief you have as an answer, and users can bet on whether anyone on the site can convince you otherwise, in the comments of this market or in Manifold DMs. (You can also add answers about other users, but I'd make sure they're willing to participate first.) It's meant to be a rough equivalent to /r/CMV. The idea is for users to scope out others' beliefs, even if they don't particularly intend on debating them, and bet accordingly, creating a rough ordering of which users/subjects are likely to be easier or harder (but also which .

To resolve a market YES, simply comment or DM me that you have been convinced and who convinced you. If you naturally change your mind without talking about it with anyone on the site, I will resolve the answer NO. Meta answers about the market itself like "Two debate answers added by separate users in this market resolve YES" are allowed. I think it's ideal if users do not bet on their own answers, since that adds perverse incentives, but I won't try to stop people from doing so.

The market close date will not change, and all remaining open answers resolve NO at that time.

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