Will the next iteration of OPTIC (intercollegiate forecasting competition) have at least 75 competitors?
resolved Nov 5


This is the first Manifold market I've ever created! Please let me know if there's any way I can improve the question, description, resolution criteria, or anything else.

Market resolves positively if:

  • at least 75 competitors compete at the next iteration of OPTIC

Market resolves negatively if:

  • fewer than 75 competitors compete at the next iteration of OPTIC

  • there are multiple iterations of OPTIC in 2023, but the first of them after market creation has fewer than 75 competitors (regardless of the attendance of the other iterations)

  • competitor attendance is unclear, and I give a <90% chance that it was higher than 75 (by my own estimate)

  • no iteration of OPTIC happens in 2023

  • none of the above happens

Note: I'm a co-organizer of OPTIC, along with @toms and @JingyiWang .


The first iteration of OPTIC ran as a pilot. We had 114 signups, many (40-60%ish) indicating that they couldn't compete this iteration but wanted to compete in the next one. We had 32 competitors and 2 spectators at the first iteration, and the vast majority indicated moderate-to-strong interest in continuing to compete at future iterations.

For the pilot, we did ~2-5 weeks of outreach, and began planning ~2.5 months prior to the event.

I will bet on this market up until at most 3 weeks before the competition, at which point I'll cease betting on this market.

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predicted NO

Whoa did it happen?

predicted YES

@Nikola yup! in the bay :)

predicted YES

What counts as an "iteration" of OPTIC? Does each location count as a different iteration?

@toms yes

I'm interested in the second iteration! (and I'm willing to advertise it to other MIT students as well)

predicted YES

@duck_master thanks! it was great to have you at the first :)

word-of-mouth is probably the best way to get more competitors, so please spread it to your friends~