opticforecasting.com

This is the first Manifold market I've ever created! Please let me know if there's any way I can improve the question, description, resolution criteria, or anything else.

Market resolves positively if:

• at least 75 competitors compete at the next iteration of OPTIC

Market resolves negatively if:

• fewer than 75 competitors compete at the next iteration of OPTIC

• there are multiple iterations of OPTIC in 2023, but the first of them after market creation has fewer than 75 competitors (regardless of the attendance of the other iterations)

• competitor attendance is unclear, and I give a <90% chance that it was higher than 75 (by my own estimate)

• no iteration of OPTIC happens in 2023

• none of the above happens

Note: I'm a co-organizer of OPTIC, along with @toms and @JingyiWang .

Background:

The first iteration of OPTIC ran as a pilot. We had 114 signups, many (40-60%ish) indicating that they couldn't compete this iteration but wanted to compete in the next one. We had 32 competitors and 2 spectators at the first iteration, and the vast majority indicated moderate-to-strong interest in continuing to compete at future iterations.

For the pilot, we did ~2-5 weeks of outreach, and began planning ~2.5 months prior to the event.

I will bet on this market up until at most 3 weeks before the competition, at which point I'll cease betting on this market.