Will the next iteration of OPTIC (intercollegiate forecasting competition) have at least 75 competitors?
closes 2024


This is the first Manifold market I've ever created! Please let me know if there's any way I can improve the question, description, resolution criteria, or anything else.

Market resolves positively if:

  • at least 75 competitors compete at the next iteration of OPTIC

Market resolves negatively if:

  • fewer than 75 competitors compete at the next iteration of OPTIC

  • there are multiple iterations of OPTIC in 2023, but the first of them after market creation has fewer than 75 competitors (regardless of the attendance of the other iterations)

  • competitor attendance is unclear, and I give a <90% chance that it was higher than 75 (by my own estimate)

  • no iteration of OPTIC happens in 2023

  • none of the above happens

Note: I'm a co-organizer of OPTIC, along with @toms and @JingyiWang .


The first iteration of OPTIC ran as a pilot. We had 114 signups, many (40-60%ish) indicating that they couldn't compete this iteration but wanted to compete in the next one. We had 32 competitors and 2 spectators at the first iteration, and the vast majority indicated moderate-to-strong interest in continuing to compete at future iterations.

For the pilot, we did ~2-5 weeks of outreach, and began planning ~2.5 months prior to the event.

I will bet on this market up until at most 3 weeks before the competition, at which point I'll cease betting on this market.

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I'm interested in the second iteration! (and I'm willing to advertise it to other MIT students as well)

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