[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Typhoon Koinu make landfall in Taiwan?
[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Typhoon Koinu make landfall in Taiwan?
11
410Ṁ9429
resolved Oct 5
Resolved
YES

Background

Typhoon Koinu ('Puppy' in Japanese) is a strong Category 3 equivalent tropical cyclone currently in the Philippines Sea, cradle to many western Pacific typhoons. It is forecast to pose significant threat to the Northwest Pacific basin, in particular Taiwan and the southern coasts of China.

Before Typhoon Haikui, Taiwan had not seen typhoon landfall for several years. Will Koinu make landfall in any part of Taiwan, following the landfall of Haikui in early September merely one month ago?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Typhoon Koinu is deemed to have landed in any part of Taiwan by the Central Weather Administration (formerly Central Weather Bureau) of Taiwan, excluding all other outlying islands other than the Taiwan Main Island / Formosa. Examples that would support a YES resolution include a track area product with location of the center and a path history, or a satellite image with annotations from the CWB that denote the landfall of the typhoon in the specified area.

Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the CWA before the dissipation of Typhoon Koinu.

Will resolve based on CWA data, with supplemented data from JTWC if necessary.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ156
2Ṁ153
3Ṁ61
4Ṁ28
5Ṁ15

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy