Background

Invest 90E is a tropical disturbance that had formed off the south of Gulf of Tehuantepec, Mexico, in the Eastern Pacific, and is poised to strengthen and threaten central western Mexico, just shortly after the landfall of Lidia on October 10. Lidia landed at near peak strength as a Category 4 hurricane, following a rapid intensification before landfall.

90E is also forecast to increase in strength in the coming days, with some models predicting a Category 2 to 3 storm at landfall. As of October 18, 0300 UTC, 90E has strengthened into a tropical storm and has been given the name Norma.

Will Norma / 90E therefore make landfall in Mexico, as a tropical storm or a stronger cyclone, just a week or so after Lidia has pounded the region with heavy rain and wind?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Norma / 90E strengthens to or above tropical storm (Spanish: tormenta tropical) strength, and is deemed to have landed in any part of mainland Mexico by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of Mexico, excluding all outlying islands, while still at or above Tropical Storm strength. SMN's tropical storm warning page can be found here.

Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the SMN of Mexico before the dissipation, degeneration below tropical storm strength, or extratropical transition of Norma / 90E.

Will resolve based on SMN data, with supplemented data from NHC if necessary. I will not bet on this market.