🏅 Top traders

The market has been resolved YES per Bermuda Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center data.

Thank you very much for the participation in this market. It's been a very educational experience tracking the path and strength of the hurricane with all of you.

Now onto the other market...

According to this NHC advisory and the wind speed record at the National

Museum of Bermuda as of 14 September, 21:21, 2-minute averaged sustained wind speed in Bermuda has reached 53mph to 55mph (48.2 kts), which are above the stated criterion outlined in the description.

I will leave the market open until 10 am EST. If there is no disagreement, I will then resolve this market as YES.

@SarkanyVar No disagreement here. (Also a 36 kt 2 min average at AviMet 30 station, though mostly still below 35 kt.)

@SarkanyVar It took me a minute also to find that page myself earlier: http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=NMB%20GRAPH&user=

I was trying to find a good satellite image of where the station was located but hard to tell for sure if it’s on the roof or in the yard next to the commissioner’s house (google maps and estimate are both kind of washed out)

I only ask because it would be useful to know precisely where it is (altitude wise and location). Maybe someone that is more familiar with automated weather station equipment can recognize for sure.

@parhizj From this FB post, I think the wind station is on the roof of the Commissioner's House.

If the wind station was installed / maintained by Windguru, then I am inclined to believe the altitude stated on the Windguru site (35m) to be a reasonably precise estimate of the altitude of the station in particular.

@SarkanyVar Based on some altitude measurements for the surrounding area I get 15 m for the land it is sitting on so that makes it a 18m tall building including the base and roof which doesn’t sound too far off looking at the building.

http://weather.bm/tools/graphics.asp?name=NMB%20GRAPH&user=

lots of dots above 35 kt for 2 min average

also NHC says

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED ON BERMUDA

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue on Bermuda through 
Friday. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/141156.shtml?

An elevated observing site at the National

Museum of Bermuda has recently measured sustained winds of 53 mph

(85 km/h) with a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h).

@SarkanyVar , I don’t know if you’ll take the “elevated observing site” to resolve YES (as it is part of Bermuda in the NHC advisory), but if not it will probably resolve YES later on anyway from the airport wind speeds…

@parhizj Thank you! I would consider this data from NMB to be sufficient for the resolution of this market to YES. I will make another comment to clarify the conclusion of the market very soon.

TS Warning for Bermuda

http://www.weather.bm/forecastWarningsExtended.asp

"

Updated: 5:30 am Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Tropical Storm Warning
A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 34-63 knots (63-117 km/h) (39-73 mph) expected to affect Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles within 36 hours or less."

Could resolve as early as tomorrow afternoon (63km/h at 2PM according to weather.com):

@parhizj Will be keeping an eye on it, along with the other market. Cheers!

As I mentioned yesterday about it resolving by 2PM, weather.com really nailed the 2pm wind speed and timing

It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text product and graphics are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than 
average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.

Tropical storm watch issued for Bermuda ~ an hour ago:

http://www.weather.bm/forecastWarningsExtended.asp

"Tropical Storm Watch
An announcement for Bermuda or the local marine area out to 25 nautical miles that a tropical storm or an incipient tropical storm condition (including, but not limited to mean wind speeds of 34 to 63 knots, and significant waves & swell) poses a possible threat within 48 hours."

Most recent NHC Prob forecast text has the probabilities directly for Bermuda (cumulative in parenthesis) 5 days out as 43%: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/111540.shtml?

Forecast for Friday has the storm as a strong cat with 80 kt winds, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/111431.shtml?

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 33.1N 67.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

Weather.com forecast for Bermuda has wind speeds 49mph on Friday.

Checked some popular sites such as accuweather/weather.com/etc, and most of them show tropical storm wind speeds for Friday (~40-50 mph, with weatherunderground having 40-60mph)

2/4 model guidance from 06h show a chance of getting 50 kt winds.

Official NHC 34kt wind probabilities have it at ~50% now.

Bermuda now In the NHC cone with NHC wind radii probabilities at 30%.

12h Guidance from models still has Lee tracking roughly 3 deg west of Bermuda (including OFCL) as in the 00-06h forecast:

ECMWF long-range forecasts have a potential Nigel going straight for Bermuda in two weeks. Can't catch a break.

I realized that the HFIP display lets you show model wind radii (don't know why I missed that before). HMNI HWFI UKMI from 06h say yes:

Referencing CIRA's ensemble tracks (and taking the middle of the intersection of the GEFS and ECMWF ellipses at 168h for the center (00z forecast this morning 09/07) and that the last couple best tracks have tropical storm winds going out NE 150nm (2.5 nm) it looks like Bermuda will be just barely beyond that range. This assumes about the same storm size/intensity at forecast valid time as the best track time... as I don't have good intensity guidance that far out, I use the intensity trends from GFS and other models (extrapolating from other models at 120h to 168h) to make that assumption. As this is a lot of guess work I am only betting modestly NO that the probability is < 50%.

@parhizj 07/09, 12h update: Most of the models including the consensus model show Lee tracking more than 2.5 degrees west of Bermuda

https://www.royalgazette.com/weather/news/article/20230908/hurricane-lee-minister-urges-residents-to-be-prepared/

Hurricane Lee: minister urges residents to be prepared

The public were today warned to treat Hurricane Lee seriously as forecasts suggest the Category 5 hurricane may steer towards the island. Michael Weeks, the Minister of National Security, said at a pr...