[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Hurricane Lee go on to strike Bermuda?

Question

Background

Hurricane Lee is a classic Cape Verde hurricane that formed off West Africa, in a process that often produces some of the strongest North Atlantic hurricanes. Moving over unusally warm oceans and enjoying favourable atmospheric conditions, it quickly strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday afternoon and is expected to continue intensifying, as it moves towards the Lesser Antilles.

According to long-term forecasts as of September 6, it is not expected to make landfall for the next week, and a low pressure trough moving off the East Coast of the US would steer the hurricane north before it reaches the Bahamas and US coasts. Current ECWMF ensemble predictions suggest a 10-25% chance for the hurricane to pass within 1 latitude or longitude of Bermuda, forecasted to be around September 14-15.

[image]Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Hurricane Lee brings hurricane-level winds (>64 knots, >74 mph) to any part of Bermuda while maintaining tropical characteristics.

Resolves NO if Hurricane Lee dissipates or becomes extratropical before the fulfilment of the condition for YES.

Will resolve based on Bermuda Weather Service and/or the National Hurricane Center data.

Here is a similar market with a lower wind speed requirement:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/SarkanyVar/m200-subsidy-will-hurricane-lee-bri)

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Sep 16, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.