Background

Although tornadoes are observed all over the world, the United States experience tornado activities more frequently than any other places on Earth. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Storm Prediction Center tracks the activities of tornadoes in the continental US and issues preliminary reports for tornado activities, alongside severe wind and hail events each month.

A typical tornado season in the United States peaks between March and June, but tornado outbreaks have been documented in every month of the year.

As such, this market aims to capture the number of tornadoes in the United States during the month of March in 2024, and asks how many tornadoes will there be in the continental US during the period of time, according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center. The question has been adapted from the Kalshi market that asks the same thing and resolves similarly.

Options of higher counts might be added as tornado counts increase.

Resolution Criteria

An option resolves YES when the preliminary number of tornadoes as recorded in the preliminary report from NOAA Storm Prediction Center reaches said range, at or before the end of March 2024.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ150 in as subsidy.