[Ṁ150 subsidy] How many tornadoes will there be in the continental US in March 2024?
4
125
1.1K
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES
Above 5
Resolved
YES
Above 10
Resolved
YES
Above 20
Resolved
YES
Above 30
Resolved
YES
Above 40
Resolved
YES
Above 50
Resolved
YES
Above 60
Resolved
NO
Above 70
Resolved
NO
Above 80
Resolved
NO
Above 90
Resolved
NO
Above 100

Background

Although tornadoes are observed all over the world, the United States experience tornado activities more frequently than any other places on Earth. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Storm Prediction Center tracks the activities of tornadoes in the continental US and issues preliminary reports for tornado activities, alongside severe wind and hail events each month.

A typical tornado season in the United States peaks between March and June, but tornado outbreaks have been documented in every month of the year.

As such, this market aims to capture the number of tornadoes in the United States during the month of March in 2024, and asks how many tornadoes will there be in the continental US during the period of time, according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center. The question has been adapted from the Kalshi market that asks the same thing and resolves similarly.

Options of higher counts might be added as tornado counts increase.

Resolution Criteria

An option resolves YES when the preliminary number of tornadoes as recorded in the preliminary report from NOAA Storm Prediction Center reaches said range, at or before the end of March 2024.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ150 in as subsidy.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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Agree w/ @mattyb here, we can resolve. There have been no updates to past days in the last few days and they've got their hands full with this month now. Final number is 66.

66 appears to be the final count.

@sarius sometimes it takes them a few days to finish counting, but since it's been quiet the last few days, they're probably done.

bought Ṁ500 Above 70 NO

@ScottSupak the 66 i’m seeing as well

@mattyb @SarkanyVar this is good to be resolved whenever

61 is the count. Dixie was a bust last night. Rest of the month looks quiet. April 1st looks like it could get serious though.

The count is 43.

The count is 36.

bought Ṁ1 Above 70 NO

The count is 21.

bought Ṁ100 Above 50 YES

The average for the last 20 years or so has been in the high 80s iirc. I am expecting a below-average year but not a -30 underperformance of the average in March.

Subsidy added.