Background
Super Typhoon Saola (09W) is a strong tropical cyclone expected to affect Hong Kong and the Guangdong Coast on September 1 (Friday), 2023 and over the weekend. The Hong Kong Observatory expected Saola to weaken due to interaction with terrain and the northeast monsoon. However, some agencies (such as JMA and JTWC) predict a U-turn of the typhoon to the east afterwards, possibly due to interactions with another typhoon, Haikui (10W), which is currently approaching the eastern coast of China.
JTWC data as of August 31, 0300 UTC
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the low-pressure centre of Saola moves one degree longitude eastwards, after the creation of the market, while maintaining Tropical Storm strength (Maximum sustained winds near the centre at or above 63-87 km/h, 39-73 mph, or 34 to 63 knots).
Resolves NO if Saola weakens below Tropical Storm strength at any point without fulfilling the condition of YES. Will still resolve NO if Saola or the remnant of Saola reintensifies in the east or move east afterwards.
Will resolve based on HKO data, supplemented with JTWC data and my own measurement if necessary. I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ100 in as subsidy.
2023/08/31 Update 1: Added another Ṁ100 subsidy.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ123 | |
| 2 | Ṁ42 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
According to the latest HKO and JTWC data, Saola has weakened into a tropical depression. Saola has not been observed to have made the posited eastward movement prior to its weakening. This means the condition for a resolution of NO has been satisfied.
If there is no disagreement, I will resolve this market as NO at September 3, 2023, 10Z.
From the HKO page, Saola has become a TD as of Sep 2, 23HKT. I am going to wait a bit for the corroboration from JTWC, but this market is very likely to be resolved NO.
Expected to weaken to TD by ~ this time tomorrow.
As @parhizj noted, Saola seems to be weakening quickly before it will or can make a turn, for now, especially considering the increased terrain interaction now that it landed in western Guangdong.
JTWC forecast as of 08/31 15Z. Still showing the predicted turn but slower movement.
Have to emphasise in the description that it's after the creation of the market for maximum clarity, lest the initial circular motion east of Philippines might count 😅