Will any other high-level academic or public figure resign or be fired because of plagiarism allegations in 2024?
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Harvard’s President, Claudine Gay, recently resigned in part due to pressure related to allegations of plagiarism.

Neri Oxman, former MIT tenured professor, and wife of prominent investor billionaire Bill Ackman, was recently accused of plagiarism in her PhD dissertation.

Will any other academic or public figure (political, business, etc.) resign because of plagiarism allegations?

Requirements to resolve yes:

1) The person must be a public figure. I think the best way to measure this is for example if their resignation, firing, or the plagiarism allegations, are reported in national media.

2) The resignation or firing must happen in 2024, after creation of this market.

3) There must be some indication that the resignation or firing is, at least in part, due to the plagiarism allegations and not a different reason.

Clarifications:

1) Any resignation would count. For example if a person holds more than one position (e.g. board member + faculty position), just resigning or being fired from one of them would count.

2) The credibility or seriousness of the allegations don’t matter, as long as there is indication that it was a significant factor in their resignation or firing.

3) (1/14/24): To assess “high-level” of the person who is fired or resigns, “national media” is defined as media that has significant coverage or audience across the US. For example, any publication on this list of top-50 news sites by volume would count as “national media” (but there may be others that would count and are not on it): https://pressgazette.co.uk/media-audience-and-business-data/media_metrics/most-popular-websites-news-us-monthly-3/

4) (1/14/24): To assess “high level”, “national coverage” is not a necessary criterion. If e.g. a Dean of a top school is fired, it would also count even if it only gets picked up by local or state media.

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I note that the market description doesn't require it to be a US politician/academic. Norway's health minister has resigned following plagiarism allegations: https://apnews.com/article/norway-plagiarism-health-minister-f021eb0cc16f3deb12712255b3632285

Could you define national media, many digital media outlets serve the entire country. What about outlets such as Yahoo, Forbes, Business Insider, etc. that arguably has a strong national presence, but also can have low barrier for publishing stories from 'contributor' sources.

@Maniuser I think any digital media that primarily serves and has a fairly large audience across the country would count. For example, something like the NYT would count, but if something gets reported only in a newspaper like the Austin Chronicle, it probably wouldn’t.

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau Ok, that helps. Would you include 'national' media that's more niche or partisan? For example, it's possible for a firing to be picked up by an outlet that's focused on academia, or a conservative outlet as they seem to be much more supportive of Ackman's recent actions than liberal groups.

I suppose one way to make it quantifiable would be to define 'national' media as one above a certain level of average site traffic, which can be easily found.

@Maniuser Partisan I don’t think should matter, but niche, it would depend how niche. The main use of the “national coverage” criteria is to assess whether the person was a high-level academic (or public figure).

As an example, any of the following publications in the top 50 by US volume would likely count (if the reference is direct enough to the person):https://pressgazette.co.uk/media-audience-and-business-data/media_metrics/most-popular-websites-news-us-monthly-3/

The main thing is whether the person fired or who resigned seems high-level enough. Media coverage is one way to assess it, but there may be other ways (e.g. the news only gets picked up by local media, but it’s a Dean of a prominent state school).

@SantiagoRomeroBrufau The shortcoming of such approach is that a politicized topic can greatly inflate/deflate the amount of coverage, depending on the political leaning of the media channel. And a strong argument can be made that the involvement of Ackerman given his recent kerfuffle with universities--which ties into the Israel-Palestine conflict, perhaps the most contentious recent topic--will do just that. So the firing of a minor academic may be elevated, or a notable one be brushed under the rug, in order to conform to a political narrative.

If we want to set some higher threshold to only include higher-level people, my suggestion is to use more concrete criteria such as tenure, top whatever institution, etc. For example, any tenured faculty at top 100 school, assistant prof and above at top 30 school, admin above VP, director, etc. The exact threshold can be adjusted, though the criteria itself can introduce a different set of inconsistency. But it does circumvent the bias in our politicized media landscape. I do agree with you though, if we go with a simplified criteria, then 'national media coverage' is a good proxy.

predicts YES

Bloomberg - 1/5/2024:

Ackman Wants MIT Faculty Plagiarism Check After Wife Accused


Bill Ackman said on Friday he will begin checks on the work of all current faculty members of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for plagiarism...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/ackman-wants-plagiarism-checks-on-mit-faculty-after-wife-accused?embedded-checkout=true

Bill Ackman - 1/5/2024:

"We will begin with a review of the work of all current @MIT faculty members, President Kornbluth, other officers of the Corporation, and its board members for plagiarism. We will be using MIT's own plagiarism standards which can be found here: https://integrity.mit.edu/handbook/what-plagiarism… We will share our findings in the public domain as they are completed in the spirit of transparency."

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1743407502312505795

Bloomberg - 1/5/2024:

Ackman Wants MIT Faculty Plagiarism Check After Wife Accused


Bill Ackman said on Friday he will begin checks on the work of all current faculty members of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for plagiarism...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/ackman-wants-plagiarism-checks-on-mit-faculty-after-wife-accused?embedded-checkout=true

Bill Ackman - 1/5/2024:

"We will begin with a review of the work of all current @MIT faculty members, President Kornbluth, other officers of the Corporation, and its board members for plagiarism. We will be using MIT's own plagiarism standards which can be found here: https://integrity.mit.edu/handbook/what-plagiarism… We will share our findings in the public domain as they are completed in the spirit of transparency."

https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1743407502312505795

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