Will the PVV be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
42
326
Ṁ4.7KṀ770
Dec 31
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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Amount
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Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ13 +38%
New probability
73% +0.3%
A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.
If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.
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MParedispredicts YES
@SiebeRozendal Probably. The alternatives are a left-wing government or new elections. Best option for VVD and NSC seems: go with Wilders but extract big concessions and make somebody else PM.
MParedisbought Ṁ30 of YES
Guys, you have to realise minority support also counts here. Unless you get a government of VVD + PVDA/GL + NSC, you will need Wilders to provide gedoogsteun at the very least, as he did in 2010-2012.
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