Will the PVV be part of the next governing coalition of the Netherlands?
2023 Dutch general election•Dutch Politics•Dutch Cabinet Formation•2023 Dutch Tweede Kamer Election•New Year's Resolutions 2024
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Aug 30
80%
chance

A party is only part of the new governing coalition ministers or secretaries of state from that political party are appointed as part of the new government OR the party explicitly promises to support the policies of the new government, such as in a minority government.

If a caretaker government is appointed in 2023 or 2024 the question will stay open until a new government is formed.

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Looks like the close dates on this set of questions will need to be extended.

bought Ṁ45 of NO

NSC just rejected negotiations with PVV 'for now'

https://www.nu.nl/formatie-2023/6291858/omtzigt-staat-op-dit-moment-niet-open-voor-onderhandelingen-met-pvv.html

predicts NO

Do people really think NSC will go along?

predicts YES

@SiebeRozendal Probably. The alternatives are a left-wing government or new elections. Best option for VVD and NSC seems: go with Wilders but extract big concessions and make somebody else PM.

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Guys, you have to realise minority support also counts here. Unless you get a government of VVD + PVDA/GL + NSC, you will need Wilders to provide gedoogsteun at the very least, as he did in 2010-2012.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@MParedis With these results if you want to go around the VVD, you'll need the PVV (or take sooo many small parties)

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