This market resolves based on the total number of applications received by all 8 Ivy League schools for the Class of 2032 compared to Class of 2028.
Resolution will be based on official admissions data released by the universities (est. late 2028 - early 2029).
Early Resolution Criteria:
If data is not yet released for up to 3 universities, but application counts have decreased by at least 40% for the remaining universities, this market will resolve YES.
References:
Class of 2028 application count statistics:
Harvard: 54,008
Yale: 57,465
Princeton: 40,468
Columbia: 60,248
Dartmouth: 31,656
Brown: 48,898
UPenn: 65,235
Cornell: 65,612
I may bet in this market.
1,000They will go down by way more than 20%. Probably more like 50%.
Reasons:
First, the numbers are already trending back down towards pre-COVID levels. That alone should take almost by 20%.
Secondly, AI is unleashing so much productivity that a 4-year degree will seem like a waste of time and lost opportunity (even more so than the cost, which will also go down dramatically BTW). I think people will realize that traditional college education is just not relevant anymore.
AI will do to universities what internet did to newspapers.