Will Ron DeSantis be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?
resolved Jan 22
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Maybe naively being a brit I thought that even the Republicams wouldn't put forward a candidate who managed to inspire an insurrection. I don't understand the American character at all.

@MaePole The first US president inspired an insurrection.

predicted NO

Should resolve NO now that DeSantis has dropped out

predicted NO

@Conflux I guess if Trump dies then we can reopen.

predicted NO

Crazy that he was above 50% back in November

predicted NO

@AndrewG weird nerds like DeSantis appeal to weird nerds who use sites like this

predicted NO

@LukasTilmann I mean he was also polling really well! Just surprised that he's completely collapsed to a point where him having had a chance seems surprising

predicted NO

@AndrewG One shouldn't overestimate polls, especially early polls when the candidate hasn't had a chance to display his off-putting demeanor on television yet. I didn't necessarily expect him to collapse like this, but above 50% was completely insane. That's by definition more than Trump, who GOP voters see as some kind of god.

@LukasTilmann Yeah, I remember having that DeSantis skepticism early on, but then after he crushed the midterms and crucially was polling close to Trump with lower name recognition (typically adjusting upward for that is more predictive), I bought into the DeSantis hype, only for him to completely fizzle

predicted NO

Trump 92%, Haley 8%, DeSantis 4%, according to Manifold.

predicted NO


@LukasTilmann Trump supporters when he loses the polls: THE POLLS ARE FAKE NEWS, THEY DON'T COUNT!
Trump supporters when he wins the polls:

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr Luckily I'm a big Brandon guy and always believe in the polls (after Nate Gold has worked his magic on them)

Meatball Ron - no charisma, disloyal, total disaster. He's toast!

Why is there so much movement in this??

@RahulShah His anti-vax measures make me think he will be liked by Republicans

DeSantis is the talk of the town,
But will he wear the presidential crown?
2024 is still far away,
But for now, let's just say "nay."

This market has moved surprisingly little given the massive surge in /Gigacasting/will-trump-be-indicted-by-march-31

predicted NO

@SG Also relevant is

Just watched Jon Oliver episode on DeSantis. The man has the charisma of a door.

I think Trump still has a very good chance of being the 2024 GOP candidate, especially if he can tone down the election denialism. DeSantis did quite well in Florida and is definitely in the mix, but not >50% right now.