Will media coverage of Manifest 2024 result in 500+ signups?
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resolved Jan 1
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NO

Last year, we had a NYT article that led to thousands of signups for Manifold.

This market resolves YES if there is an article, blog post, video, podcast, TikTok, or other form of online or print media that directly results in 500 or more signups for Manifold in 2024. Estimating signups is more of an art than a science. I will use my best judgment in cases of ambiguity.

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https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/16/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-eugenics-scientific-racism
I'd sure sign up if I read this.

Absurd and misleading coverage. Guardian staff should be ashamed of themselves.

Which media were there? I spotted someone with a "Press" tag early on, but couldn't tell where they were from.

I talked with someone from Reuters...

is this 500 across total media mentions, or just one article?

One instance of media coverage (a single article, podcast, video, etc.).

It's much harder to estimate the number of signups if they come from many sources over time.

reposted

Please manipulate this market!

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