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I see a peak of 301 online in a 24h period (an upper bound for online in a day) in November, remaining answer resolves NO @SG

Hey, which outcome is this with the new market type?

@Joshua I think it will be whatever market is presented as the default one. So right now, 1st date

?

For calibration, here's a base rate market

/MartinRandall/will-manifoldlove-hit-1000-signed-i-3cd008382bd7

Will resolve the same as whatever condition is picked here.

@MartinRandall lots of arbitrage 6-12% here vs 3% there. For folks who can reason about the conditionals.

FWIW I think that whether or not manifold.love gets 1000 daily logged in viewers within a month has very little to do with this choice, so I'm just betting NO on the highest option whenever one sticks out. This means my bets are weakening any actual signal about what you should do (A signal which I think is only above the noise in the first place because some people are treating this market as a poll instead of trading to maximise profit).

@chrisjbillington FWIW I am also very skeptical of it hitting 1000 regardless of the choice so I am betting NO on every option. Further, I also think this format is garbage for any decisions about new features and should be replaced with another, such as a poll for the decision and a related market for predictions.

kinda surprised by the % difference between these options right now. I do think "6 months" is the worst option but I don't think there should by a 10 percentage pt swing between the other ones.

@Sinclair I was going to respond with a bet but the feature seems to be missing! it's already become one of my favourite features in such a short time. Kudos, @ian

Edit: it appears that this feature is currently only available on binary markets.

Edit 2: I think that the 10% gap is too low still and prioritizing 2nd/3rd or 1st date options are clear frontrunners

"Do these people go on a second date?" seems like the obvious answer. It's secretly a market on whether they go on a first date, but it's only concerned with the first dates that go well. which is the right emphasis.

@MichaelWheatley The market should be: "conditional on a first date, do these people go on a second date (within N months)"

@MilfordHammerschmidt But this way you can also bet on the question of whether she'll reject him outright rather than go on any dates at all.

@MichaelWheatley Well, if you want to know both, you should just create two markets. You want to be able to disambiguate a market saying that you're likely to date someone again vs. you're likely to date them in the first place

Prioritizing first-date-outcomes is the ideal for engagement. It's not what Robin Hanson would dream of, but it provides lots of reason to login to the site every day and see if you missed something. It also provides a quick feedback loop and good early data for traders.

Wait, so signed in viewers in one day right?

@Joshua Yep.

I like this longer term, but I would bet on something simpler going viral shorter term.

I think between 1st dates and six months there is an excluded middle. Eg, third date.

I feel like it makes sense to start with a first date market and then people will make second and third date markets themselves

@Joshua I don't need someone to predict whether I'm going to go on a date with someone, I need someone to predict whether he'll turn out to be an axe murderer.