Will Manifold.love hit 1,000 signed in viewers in November if we...
resolved Dec 1
Allow users to specify default timeframe
Prioritize 2nd or 3rd dates
Prioritize 6 month relationships
Prioritize 1st dates

We're currently deciding what the main focus of the markets on manifold.love should be. In particular, whether we should prioritize markets that resolve after users go on a single date or after a relationship milestone farther in the future. (The current UI prioritizes 6 month relationships.)

This is a decision market. Once we've committed to at least one of these options, I'll N/A the others. Prioritizing 1st date v 6mo relationships is mutually exclusive, but third option is not (ie we could prioritize 1st dates while still letting users choose their default timeframe, etc.).

If you have any other ideas of what relationship length or timeframe to prioritize, feel free to post below, and I may add them to this market...

"Signed in viewers" is the total number of unique users who have created an account on manifold.love that have visited the manifold.love homepage on a particular day. Here's what the current numbers look like:

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I see a peak of 301 online in a 24h period (an upper bound for online in a day) in November, remaining answer resolves NO @SG

Hey, which outcome is this with the new market type?

@Joshua I think it will be whatever market is presented as the default one. So right now, 1st date


For calibration, here's a base rate market


Will resolve the same as whatever condition is picked here.

@MartinRandall lots of arbitrage 6-12% here vs 3% there. For folks who can reason about the conditionals.

bought Ṁ10 of Prioritize 2nd or 3r... NO

FWIW I think that whether or not manifold.love gets 1000 daily logged in viewers within a month has very little to do with this choice, so I'm just betting NO on the highest option whenever one sticks out. This means my bets are weakening any actual signal about what you should do (A signal which I think is only above the noise in the first place because some people are treating this market as a poll instead of trading to maximise profit).

@chrisjbillington FWIW I am also very skeptical of it hitting 1000 regardless of the choice so I am betting NO on every option. Further, I also think this format is garbage for any decisions about new features and should be replaced with another, such as a poll for the decision and a related market for predictions.

kinda surprised by the % difference between these options right now. I do think "6 months" is the worst option but I don't think there should by a 10 percentage pt swing between the other ones.

bought Ṁ10 of Prioritize 2nd or 3r... YES

@Sinclair I was going to respond with a bet but the feature seems to be missing! it's already become one of my favourite features in such a short time. Kudos, @ian

Edit: it appears that this feature is currently only available on binary markets.

Edit 2: I think that the 10% gap is too low still and prioritizing 2nd/3rd or 1st date options are clear frontrunners

bought Ṁ40 of Prioritize 2nd or 3r... YES

"Do these people go on a second date?" seems like the obvious answer. It's secretly a market on whether they go on a first date, but it's only concerned with the first dates that go well. which is the right emphasis.

@MichaelWheatley The market should be: "conditional on a first date, do these people go on a second date (within N months)"

bought Ṁ100 of Prioritize 1st dates NO

@MilfordHammerschmidt But this way you can also bet on the question of whether she'll reject him outright rather than go on any dates at all.

@MichaelWheatley Well, if you want to know both, you should just create two markets. You want to be able to disambiguate a market saying that you're likely to date someone again vs. you're likely to date them in the first place

bought Ṁ10 of Allow users to speci... NO

Prioritizing first-date-outcomes is the ideal for engagement. It's not what Robin Hanson would dream of, but it provides lots of reason to login to the site every day and see if you missed something. It also provides a quick feedback loop and good early data for traders.

sold Ṁ3 of Prioritize 2nd or 3r... NO

Wait, so signed in viewers in one day right?

bought Ṁ0 of Prioritize 6 month r... NO

@Joshua Yep.

Allow users to specify default timeframe

I like this longer term, but I would bet on something simpler going viral shorter term.

I think between 1st dates and six months there is an excluded middle. Eg, third date.

bought Ṁ15 of Prioritize 2nd or 3r... NO

I feel like it makes sense to start with a first date market and then people will make second and third date markets themselves

sold Ṁ14 of Allow users to speci... NO

@Joshua I don't need someone to predict whether I'm going to go on a date with someone, I need someone to predict whether he'll turn out to be an axe murderer.