This is a decision market. I will N/A exactly one answer depending upon what we end up doing.
At the end of January, I will look at the 7d avg DAU number on our stats page (or equivalent) for January 31st and compare it to the number for January 1st 2024. If the former is greater by 30% or more, the relevant market resolves YES.
See also: /SG/will-manifold-hit-100000-daus-in-20-4c0ec31d0a72
@Gen I assume that more markets close on Jan 1 than on any other day in Manifolds history. Not a representative day at all.
Even if Manifold Dating itself isn’t successful, the free press generated by media covering the concept will repay your investment by bringing more users to check out the base Manifold app and increasing brand recognition 💵 💵 💵
Kinda cynical but I suppose I’m one of those “all press is good press” people.
It looks like the norm is to have slightly negative growth outside of specific events (LK-99, NYT article). I can't look back further on the stats page and I don't know the history of the site, but what would you even do to intentionally get 30% growth in a normal month? (and if there's something you can do to get 30% growth in a typical month, why not just do that now?)
My guess is that a lot of the probability of a 30% increase in Jan in either case comes from reasons/events independent of Manifold Dating
@JamesGrugett I agree with this. 1-2k DAUs is not nearly enough. You need to be maximizing the odds of 100k+ DAUs for manifold to be at all viable