Will Manifold have $100k in donations on March 1st?
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57
Ṁ53k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
YES

We sadly are having to shut down our charity program. Will it end with a bang?

Resolves YES if Manifold has the equivalent of US$100k or more in total donations as part of our charity program by March 1st, 2023.

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6.3k has been donated in the last 3 months or so

@jack boom! Nice!

predictedNO

@egroj We're still waiting for clawback decisions on Mana purchased with illegitimately earned funds, HODL for all of us with NO

predictedNO

Still $500 short, with only a few hours remaining. It could definitely still resolve no!

There's M$1500 free profit here for a generous individual!

predictedYES

wow I always forget how short February is

predictedYES

Why's there such a sudden drop in probably? The current total is less than 1400 USD from a 100k. Just because the charity program will continue... Is it less likely that people will contribute to it if they were planning to anyway?

predictedNO

@firstuserhere Wouldn't it be? You can always either donate your mana or try to invest it to win more mana. If your goal is to give as much as possible to charity, you'd probably want to invest quite a bit of it to earn a return rather than just giving it all to charity right away. If the charity option is about to permanently disappear, then you'd conversely want to donate everything you've got on hand right now.

@akrasiac well the same dilemma occurs at a later point in time as well. If your goal is to give as much as possible to charity, you'd want to increase your mana even more at some time t' > t. This is similar to the balance that has to be struck in altruist community as well. Do i start donating now, even if less amounts, than compound it and donate more later? In either case, a point comes where you decide to donate, even if you could increase and donate more... Later.

predictedNO

@firstuserhere Agreed, there is a balance. But if you cannot donate at all after March 1st, that's going to shift the balance in favor of donating now.

predictedNO

It was just announced that Stripe reversed their decision and the charitable donation program will continue: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Charity-program-ending-March-1st-ac5da2d66e9d4306a917e3dd653b9cea

not sure why this dipped to 90 - are people selling their positions to donate mana?

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