Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? (RW version)
Dec 1

Resolves according to the opinion of populist right-wing news sources like Breitbart, Revolver, ZeroHedge, etc. in case of a disputed result.

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So it's more likely that Breitbart will say Any Democrat won in 2024 than Nikki Haley will say Joe Biden won in 2020? Even if I've missed it and this market is conditional on a Democrat winning the 2024 election, somebody is wrong here.

Related market slightly different approach

2020 already proved that populist right wing sources will take the side of populist right wing candidates no matter what, even if there's no evidence to back up fraud claims. If Trump is the nominee and loses, he'll claim fraud, and the far-right sources will go along with it. I don't really think it matters how big the loss is. Why would they admit that Trump lost if he loses in the tipping point state by 10% instead of .6%? They would just claim that there was even more fraud.

This is kind of tangential, but is ZeroHedge a populist right wing source? I didn't have that impression of it.

@AndrewHartman I think so. What else would you call it?

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@DrP Feel free to pampu. This market's for you.

@SG Puke.

Interesting! Would this have resolved NO in 2020?

@NcyRocks Correct.

@SG It’s difficult to see this resolving YES if a Democratic victory isn’t enough. Maybe if the Republican candidate does something to really piss off that kind of news source, they might not bother with disputing the result?

@SG I feel like this needs more specific criteria. As time has gone on, those sources have tended to admit that he won, even if they think he cheated.

Example from my first Google - "eked out a 'win'"


predicts NO

@MattP Yes, there are ambiguities with the current resolution criteria that are probably impossible to completely iron out (especially given that aggregators like ZeroHedge reference a wide variety of opinions). What I'm looking for is more the initial consensus (or plurality opinion) on the legitimacy of the election by right-wing populist sources immediately following the election. If those sources later change their mind or use more hedged/nuanced language to describe the outcome of the election several months later, that doesn't matter.

predicts NO

@NcyRocks I think it mainly depends on whether the Republican candidate claims fraud, and who the nominee is. If the nominee concedes defeat and doesn't make any accusations, then I could see the populist right-wing "news" sources backing off as well. And similarly if someone like Pence who they don't really like, or at least don't obsessively worship, gets nominated. But it's increasingly likely that Trump will be nominated, and I don't see any scenario where he concedes defeat.