My hackathon project today was adding loot boxes to Manifold (as a fun random side project—please don't read anything more into this): https://manifold.markets/lootbox
Resolves YES if 50 or more users purchase at least one loot box before the start of May 20th, Pacific Time.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ64 | |
| 2 | Ṁ38 | |
| 3 | Ṁ32 | |
| 4 | Ṁ27 | |
| 5 | Ṁ20 |
People are also trading
I just changed the pay out function so wins occur 50% of the time.
The previous method was just sampling from one log-normal distribution with a mean of M80 and an extremely long tail. Now, I'm sampling from two separate distributions—one for wins and one for losses— each with even odds of occurring. I also lowered the House's cut slightly to around 13%.
@AlexbGoode Just wait until I get through 2023 without losing >260 mana on a single market and make those shares worth 0
@SG i didn't have 100 Mana balance BUT i clicked on the loot box anyway, and it's been stuck on this screen since, loading/rotating:
Oops, that was a misresolution. Currently at 45 box purchasers.
@SG damn, that was fast. Make another market for like 150, that'll be interesting as day 1 charm wears off
@Odoacre what is really interesting is I am now a top share holder in a market where the creator and I have mutually blocked one another, thanks to the loot box I bought.
speedrunning the list of known gamification features xd
@NcyRocks Yes! Weird, because I just bought another box to test and it shows up this time (got 5 mana worth of shares lol)