Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?

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resolved Jun 8

Resolved

YES

If everything goes to plan, where do you see Manifold in 5 years?

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YES

How many years in federal prison would you be ok with serving if it meant that Manifold got 10M DAUs?

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YES

What feature most underperformed your expectations, and what did you learn from it?

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YES

What part of manifold are you most proud of?

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YES

What are the best and worst parts about working with your brother?

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YES

Are you considering specific mechanisms to help price long-term markets more accurately, with the end of loans?

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YES

What level of adoption of prediction markets by others would convince you that working on Manifold wouldn’t be worth it anymore?

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YES

Austin: how are you feeling now that you're ~2mo from stepping out of Manifold in an official capacity?

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YES

Why does manifold not believe in privacy?

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YES

What applications of prediction markets do you see to journalism and investigative reporting?

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YES

It's unique that users have such easy access to communicate with the core team of a product/site they use - what are the upsides and downsides of that for you?

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YES

if Twitter added prediction markets, would that convince you that prediction markets had gone mainstream and Manifold had done its job and you could move on to something else? If not, what would meet that bar?

Resolved

How did you get the idea for sweepstakes?

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What would you like to say to people who are suspicious about Manifold having recieved $millions comprising EA funds, donated only ~$400k through its charity program, now changing how money is managed (the Pivot) ?

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What are your plans to raise additional capital over the next year?

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Do you see predictive markets as a beneficial way of collecting decentralized normative data to align AI systems? Is 'betting on how the AI ought behave' the key to producing a decentralized source of normative truth?

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What's your P(Doom), and what do you think are good approaches to using markets and forecasting to measure existential threats?

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What topics do you feel are under/overrepresented on Manifold?

Resolved

What do you think is preventing cross site arbitrage between Manifold and other prediction sites (e.g Polymarket), and do you expect sweepstakes to fix the problem? (Is it a problem?)

Resolved

Thoughts on time-gated crowdsourcing of initial liquidity for markets a la pump.fun?

Ask us about Manifold, prediction markets, forecasting, our plans for the future, our experience running a startup, etc. Submit your question as a response to this market. We will choose a subset of the questions here to answer live during our Founders' Panel at Manifest (probably in the neighborhood of 5-10 questions, as time permits). Please be considerate and concise!

If we answer your question during the panel (or make a reasonable attempt to address a majority of the content of the question), your question resolves YES. I may resolve questions I don't like to NO beforehand.

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