Which questions will we answer during the Manifold Founders' Panel at Manifest 2024?
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131k
resolved Jun 8
Resolved
YES
If everything goes to plan, where do you see Manifold in 5 years?
Resolved
YES
How many years in federal prison would you be ok with serving if it meant that Manifold got 10M DAUs?
Resolved
YES
What feature most underperformed your expectations, and what did you learn from it?
Resolved
YES
What part of manifold are you most proud of?
Resolved
YES
What are the best and worst parts about working with your brother?
Resolved
YES
Are you considering specific mechanisms to help price long-term markets more accurately, with the end of loans?
Resolved
YES
What level of adoption of prediction markets by others would convince you that working on Manifold wouldn’t be worth it anymore?
Resolved
YES
Austin: how are you feeling now that you're ~2mo from stepping out of Manifold in an official capacity?
Resolved
YES
Why does manifold not believe in privacy?
Resolved
YES
What applications of prediction markets do you see to journalism and investigative reporting?
Resolved
YES
It's unique that users have such easy access to communicate with the core team of a product/site they use - what are the upsides and downsides of that for you?
Resolved
YES
if Twitter added prediction markets, would that convince you that prediction markets had gone mainstream and Manifold had done its job and you could move on to something else? If not, what would meet that bar?
Resolved
NO
How did you get the idea for sweepstakes?
Resolved
NO
What would you like to say to people who are suspicious about Manifold having recieved $millions comprising EA funds, donated only ~$400k through its charity program, now changing how money is managed (the Pivot) ?
Resolved
NO
What are your plans to raise additional capital over the next year?
Resolved
NO
Do you see predictive markets as a beneficial way of collecting decentralized normative data to align AI systems? Is 'betting on how the AI ought behave' the key to producing a decentralized source of normative truth?
Resolved
NO
What's your P(Doom), and what do you think are good approaches to using markets and forecasting to measure existential threats?
Resolved
NO
What topics do you feel are under/overrepresented on Manifold?
Resolved
NO
What do you think is preventing cross site arbitrage between Manifold and other prediction sites (e.g Polymarket), and do you expect sweepstakes to fix the problem? (Is it a problem?)
Resolved
NO
Thoughts on time-gated crowdsourcing of initial liquidity for markets a la pump.fun?

Ask us about Manifold, prediction markets, forecasting, our plans for the future, our experience running a startup, etc. Submit your question as a response to this market. We will choose a subset of the questions here to answer live during our Founders' Panel at Manifest (probably in the neighborhood of 5-10 questions, as time permits). Please be considerate and concise!

If we answer your question during the panel (or make a reasonable attempt to address a majority of the content of the question), your question resolves YES. I may resolve questions I don't like to NO beforehand.

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What applications of prediction markets do you see to journalism and investigative reporting?

How did this resolve yes again? I disagree

@jmill Stephen resolved it himself and he was on the panel answering the questions

@shankypanky Id love evidence on when/how this was answered directly. Austin didn’t read it, no one in the audience asked it.

@jmill I just spoke with Stephen - he pointed to this:

make a reasonable attempt to address a majority of the content of the question

and resolved this yes because the spirit of the question content was addressed (I'll leave any further clarification to @SG if required)

@shankypanky it was asked verbatim! Word for word!

@AndrewG Guess I played myself but I don’t remember that at all

Are these getting resolved no?

if Twitter added prediction markets, would that convince you that prediction markets had gone mainstream and Manifold had done its job and you could move on to something else? If not, what would meet that bar?
sold Ṁ533 if Twitter added pre... YES

Also resolves yes

I like this one 🙌

What applications of prediction markets do you see to journalism and investigative reporting?
bought Ṁ500 What applications of... YES

This question was asked verbatim (and subsequently answered)

bought Ṁ250 What applications of... YES

@AndrewG @mods can you resolve this lol literally my entire balance is in this

opened a Ṁ600 What applications of... NO at 60% order

@AndrewG we'll definitely figure out whether it was said or not, if it was recorded at all. we can't close that market without closing the others though. if you're right, the worst that can happen is paper losses for a few minutes / hours i think

What level of adoption of prediction markets by others would convince you that working on Manifold wouldn’t be worth it anymore?

Interesting answers, but I evidently didn’t write my question clearly enough. I didn’t mean “how small would Manifold have to shrink before you gave up on it”, I meant more like “if Twitter added prediction markets, would that convince you that prediction markets had gone mainstream and Manifold had done its job and you could move on to something else? If not, what would meet that bar?”

bought Ṁ50 Answer #gmv4z0tb42 NO

@NcyRocks yeah, that's how I interpreted your question as well

What are the best and worst parts about working with your brother?

This question was not asked

bought Ṁ50 Austin: how are you ... YES

@Elliot_dev they're answering it right now...

opened a Ṁ750 Answer #3y35hp25as NO at 42% order

@shankypanky It was what is it like to work with your brother. Different wuestion

How many years in federal prison would you be ok with serving if it meant that Manifold got 10M DAUs?
opened a Ṁ50 How many years in fe... NO at 90% order

I hope it’s obvious that you shouldn’t answer this question!

sold Ṁ0 How many years in fe... NO

🤦🏻‍♂️

What do you think is preventing cross site arbitrage between Manifold and other prediction sites (e.g Polymarket), and do you expect sweepstakes to fix the problem? (Is it a problem?)

Maybe I’m missing a point but why would cross-site arbitrage be a problem in the first place ?

Do you see predictive markets as a beneficial way of collecting decentralized normative data to align AI systems?

In other words, will predictive markets provide an open source infrastructure for social decisions to be diliberated on at scale and empower users to wager on issues/facts with the intention of using those beliefs, values and preferences as a foundation target for training behavior into AI that fairly aligns with society's expectations. (Is it true that if we all wager enough money on what we believe a fair and thorough constitution should look like, then we will create the data necessary to actually construct one?)

I think lots of people aren't adding questions cause 250M feels high (as a fraction of balance)


Well, at least that's why I'm not adding a question

@colorednoise Write some questions in the comments and I am pretty sure someone will add them if they like them.

@colorednoise my question is: what do you think is preventing cross site arbitrage between Manifold and other prediction sites (e.g Polymarket), and do you expect sweepstakes to fix the problem? (Is it a problem?)

@colorednoise I added it for you.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #3y35hp25as YES
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