Ask us about Manifold, prediction markets, forecasting, our plans for the future, our experience running a startup, etc. Submit your question as a response to this market. We will choose a subset of the questions here to answer live during our Founders' Panel at Manifest (probably in the neighborhood of 5-10 questions, as time permits). Please be considerate and concise!
If we answer your question during the panel (or make a reasonable attempt to address a majority of the content of the question), your question resolves YES. I may resolve questions I don't like to NO beforehand.
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@shankypanky Id love evidence on when/how this was answered directly. Austin didn’t read it, no one in the audience asked it.
@AndrewG we'll definitely figure out whether it was said or not, if it was recorded at all. we can't close that market without closing the others though. if you're right, the worst that can happen is paper losses for a few minutes / hours i think
Interesting answers, but I evidently didn’t write my question clearly enough. I didn’t mean “how small would Manifold have to shrink before you gave up on it”, I meant more like “if Twitter added prediction markets, would that convince you that prediction markets had gone mainstream and Manifold had done its job and you could move on to something else? If not, what would meet that bar?”
@shankypanky It was what is it like to work with your brother. Different wuestion
Do you see predictive markets as a beneficial way of collecting decentralized normative data to align AI systems?
In other words, will predictive markets provide an open source infrastructure for social decisions to be diliberated on at scale and empower users to wager on issues/facts with the intention of using those beliefs, values and preferences as a foundation target for training behavior into AI that fairly aligns with society's expectations. (Is it true that if we all wager enough money on what we believe a fair and thorough constitution should look like, then we will create the data necessary to actually construct one?)
@colorednoise Write some questions in the comments and I am pretty sure someone will add them if they like them.
@colorednoise my question is: what do you think is preventing cross site arbitrage between Manifold and other prediction sites (e.g Polymarket), and do you expect sweepstakes to fix the problem? (Is it a problem?)