You've just heard about building a trading bot, but now it's time to ENTER THE ARENA. The Manifest bot trading competion begins now!
The winner: Whichever bot makes the most profit. Eternal glory and mana await you!
The prize: Whatever mana you earn in this market, plus an additional bonus of Ṁ5,000 for the first place bot if it clears Ṁ500 in profit! (Anyone on Manifold is welcome to trade in this market, but the bonus prize will only be awarded to bots built for this competition.)
Duration: The competition will end randomly sometime Sunday evening.
Structure: The final resolution of this market has already been decided. The bot @manifestussy will place random trades in this market biased in some undisclosed fashion toward the final outcome...Profit from anticipating Manifestussy's next move or those of your fellow bots.
Get started
The first step is cloning the example bot code on the manifold github (Typescript). You are also welcome to start from scratch and write your own bot in any programming language using our API)
git clone https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/simple-trader.gitSetup your envrionment. Run yarn (or npm) to install everything. Add your config settings (and the slug to this market) to .env. Run your bot using "yarn start".
Come up with your own trading strategy and profit!
You may find our API documentation helpful: https://docs.manifold.markets/api
May the best bot win!
(I will unlist this market again to prevent my own bot @acc from sniping all your profits 😆.)
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,975 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,066 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,011 | |
| 4 | Ṁ439 | |
| 5 | Ṁ341 |
This is the core logic of the @manifestussy bot, @MattCWilson. It's not very smart: It bets a random amount of mana approximately every minute, with a 51% chance of betting the true outcome.
@SG Thanks for sharing! I was certain it was something like this, so I took the strategy of profiling the bot’s early moves and aggregating the placements and choosing to go with the outcome that seemed favored.
Over the first 171 or so bids it made, it was net-NO by a good margin (No shares purchased was something like 108-110% of Yes)
At which point I locked in on that being the likely outcome and having my bot try to spend its budget at the most favorable moments.
Where I think I went wrong was looking at net shares and not net direction of bets. Alas