If the PC version of Starfield has a metascore greater than 85 one week after launch, resolves to yes.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ673 | |
| 2 | Ṁ260 | |
| 3 | Ṁ76 | |
| 4 | Ṁ67 | |
| 5 | Ṁ49 |
@Jakob He is mostly correct though, the most recent critics reviews are almost all <=86, the user reviews are a lot worse. Steam reviews are also currently 79% positive. It might not get to 85 by sep 14, but it eventually will I think
@Bramber Thats the Xbox version, not the PC version. Steam reviews are not relevant for this market.
@Jakob I didn’t say they were, they’re just an indication. Might want to recheck the reviews and sort by date
Nevermind, can’t read
Bethesda notably withheld review copies of the game from numerous sites, including for instance Eurogamer and Rock Paper Shotgun (https://www.eurogamer.net/eurogamer-and-bethesda-starfield). My suspicion is that Bethesda selectively withheld access to outlets that it expected might judge the game more harshly. (I find it a little suspicious that the highest-profile reviewers Bethesda allowed to see the game -- IGN, PC Gamer, and Gamespot -- also gave it the lowest review scores compared to smaller / more cherry-picked outlets.) Therefore, I expect Starfield's metacritic score to drift downwards over the next two weeks as these more-critical reviews trickle in.
The metacritic score is currently 88 points on PC, so if over the next two weeks it falls just 3 points to 85, this market resolves NO.
(comment removed) (brain fart)
Note the very similar question https://manifold.markets/KeegabQcosta/will-starfield-have-an-85-or-higher?r=SmFja3NvbldhZ25lcg, which actually sets a slightly lower bar for Starfield to clear ("85 or higher" instead of "greater than 85", and the scores are averaged between Xbox & PC instead of just PC which tends to receive lower scores.)
Metacritic PC scores, higher than 85:
- Skyrim (94)
- Oblivion (94)
- Fallout 3 (91)
Lower than 85:
- Fallout 4 (84)
- Fallout New Vegas (84) (not made by Bethesda Game Studios but felt relevant)
- Fallout 76 (69)
- 100% of the DLC for every open-world bethesda game (Dragonborn, Dawnguard, Broken Steel, Point Lookout, Far Harbor, The Pitt, Nuka-World, Operation: Anchorage, etc...)
- Every special/anniversary edition
On base rates, I agree that it seems likely for a "big, new" Bethesda game to have a >85 score. But on my inside view (see my other comment), this just feels unlikely to me because I don't understand what's appealing about Starfield. It also seems quite likely that some currently-unannounced aspect of the game's design (like a paid mod marketplace, or some unpopular social/multiplayer element, or etc) could hurt review scores.
Maybe I am just a hater, but I don't see how Starfield is on track to become a fun & beloved game:
- Are people really going to get excited for the nth Bethesda-game in years, with seemingly few fundamental differences between this game vs Skyrim, Fallout, etc? The addition of the tedious "mining laser" and other mechanics from No Man's sky does not seem like a plus...
- The idea of taking off and landing on different planets seems poorly thought out; doesn't this directly contradict the open-world philosophy that has made previous Bethesda games successful? Instead of walking from place to place in a seamless world, you are basically watching a loading screen in-between separate small levels. Seems like a step backwards for the game design. (To clarify, I love games like Kerbal space program, where travelling between worlds is an interesting gameplay challenge. But this does not seem to be the case with Starfield, where you mostly warp from one point to another.
- I am an aerospace engineer and a huge space nerd, but even I find it hard to be captivated by the bland theming of this latest game. Realistic in all the boring ways (aesthetically everything is just metal boxes and rocky barren planets), not in any of the interesting ways (doesn't seem to have much in terms of a hard-sci-fi sensibility in terms of lore / storytelling / game mechanics / etc).
- This seems like the kind of game, like No Man's Sky or Cyberpunk, which might be susceptible to an exaggerated negative reception at launch even if people eventually warm to it.
- Finally, the PC release of any videogame almost always gets a lower metascore than the console version.