Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035 (11:59 PM UTC), any nuclear fusion power plant has delivered a net electrical power output of at least 100 MW (megawatts electric, or MWe) averaged over a continuous 30-day period.

• Net electrical power is defined as the gross electrical power generated by the fusion facility minus the total recirculating (parasitic) electrical power consumed by the facility itself (e.g., for plasma heating, magnet cooling, cryogenics, and other support systems) to sustain operations.

• The power must be delivered either directly to a public electrical grid or to dedicated external end-users (e.g., commercial off-takers).

• 30-day average means the net power delivered must average at least 100 MW over a continuous 720-hour (30-day) window. For facilities operating in pulsed modes, the net electrical power exported must still average at least 100 MW over the 30-day period when accounting for both the pulses and the intervening non-operational periods.

• Verification: This market will resolve based on official data and reports from grid operators, the plant's operating utility, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Fusion Industry Association (FIA), or reputable scientific journals and news outlets (e.g., Nature, Science, IEEE Spectrum).

If no fusion facility meets these criteria by the cutoff date, this market resolves to NO.

Background

While several experimental reactors have achieved momentary scientific energy breakeven (where fusion thermal output exceeds the heating power injected into the plasma, or $Q_{sci} > 1$), converting that thermal energy into net electricity ($Q_{eng} > 1$) and exporting it to the grid represents a significant engineering challenge.

Numerous private and public fusion projects are aiming for grid integration by the 2030s. Notable efforts include Commonwealth Fusion Systems (targeting 200 MWe output with its ARC tokamak in Virginia) and Helion Energy (building its Orion plant in Washington state with a power purchase agreement signed with Microsoft). However, key engineering hurdles—such as sustaining plasma confinement over long duty cycles, managing material degradation from high-energy neutron bombardment, and limiting massive internal power consumption—remain unresolved at commercial scales. This market evaluates whether any such project can scale to sustain a steady-state output of 100+ MW over a continuous month-long timeframe.