Will manifold markets add a way to view calibration histograms for users, tags, or folds?
15
102Ṁ534resolved Dec 8
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This market resolves to yes if there is some way to view a histogram of "% at closing" vs. "% resolved to yes in bucket" for either a user's created markets, a user's participated markets, a tag, a fold, a search query, or the site as a whole.
This does not apply if the histogram is generated by a third party, it must be on the manifold.markets site.
This market will resolve early (to yes) if said feature is announced or appears on the site before April 30th, 2022. The market will not resolve to no before the indicated closing time.
General thoughts:
I expect that for larger groups this would quickly lead to very boring histograms as calibration errors are arbitraged out, but for smaller groups or individuals it could serve as way to find persistent biases.
This could also serve as a useful mechanism to judge the quality of a user or community's judgement, especially if coupled with some indicator of bid volume (like a note showing how many markets or how much money is in each bucket.)
Also, question for the crowd: Would weighting the buckets by market volume or by a user's bid size be meaningful? show useful additional information not captured by a raw-market-count histogram?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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