As of the time I'm posting this, FiveThirtyEight claims there to be a <1% chance that the election will be decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates, and I wanted to run this by Manifold.

I'm not going to give specific resolution criteria here; if anyone can find what exactly FiveThirtyEight means by this, we'll go with that, and if not, I'll try to discuss to consensus here after the election whether this happened or not.