Will Manifold consider the next Claude Sonnet to be a frontier model?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ85Jun 30
81%
chance
11
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10 days after the next Sonnet model releases, I will make a poll:
Is Sonnet [version number] a frontier model?
Yes
No
See results/unsure
If there are more YES votes than NO votes, this market resolves YES. (a tie resolves NO)
close date is a placeholder, will be extended if needed
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a new Claude Opus model be released in February 2026?
71% chance
Which Claude Sonnet?
Will Anthropic’s next model release be Claude 5?
86% chance
Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 4.6 by February 15th?
16% chance
Will Manifold consider the next Claude Opus model to be AGI?
2% chance
Will the next release of Claude be Sonnet 4.7?
4% chance
How much will Claude Sonnet 5 or the next released Anthropic model cost in Github Copilot credits?
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
New Claude tier above Max 20x before 2027?
38% chance
Have Claude Sonnet 4.5 model weights leaked before October 2025?
1% chance