MANIFOLD

Will Manifold consider Claude Sonnet 4.6 to be a frontier model?

Ṁ100Ṁ1.6k

resolved Mar 1

Resolved

YES

ALL

Sometime on Feb 27, I will make a poll:

Is Sonnet 4.6 a frontier model?

Yes
No
See results/unsure

If there are more YES votes than NO votes, this market resolves YES. (a tie resolves NO)

Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll to determine resolution has been created and is now live.

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Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

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https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/is-sonnet-46-a-frontier-model

@traders

oh this'll be close!

Maybe this is the point, but it feels it will likely be more a question about how people define frontier models than about the capabilities of Sonnet?

@rayman2000 yeah

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Which new words will Anthropic use to name Claude models? (Haiku, Sonnet, Opus, Fable, Mythos, ...)

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