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Will Manifold consider the next Claude Sonnet to be a frontier model?
81%
chance
11

10 days after the next Sonnet model releases, I will make a poll:

Is Sonnet [version number] a frontier model?

  • Yes

  • No

  • See results/unsure

If there are more YES votes than NO votes, this market resolves YES. (a tie resolves NO)

close date is a placeholder, will be extended if needed

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Maybe this is the point, but it feels it will likely be more a question about how people define frontier models than about the capabilities of Sonnet?

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