42
Ṁ1m
resolved Sep 13
Resolved
YES
≥Ṁ9,001
Resolved
YES
≥Ṁ10,000
Resolved
YES
Greater than (number of traders) * 3000
Resolved
YES
≥Ṁ1,000
Resolved
YES
≥Ṁ1,000,000
Resolved
YES
a substring of the digits of pi (yes within 200m digits, N/A otherwise)
Resolved
YES
Less than the number I will post in comments in response to this option
Resolved
YES
≥Ṁ100
Resolved
YES
≥Ṁ10
Resolved
YES
Less than Manifold's estimate for the number of Pennsylvania Trump voters in 2024 (I'll make a market for this momentarily)
Resolved
YES
An excessive number
Resolved
YES
An even number
Resolved
NO
A multiple of 7
Resolved
NO
Within 1000 of the product of option values of any multiple-choice market in the top 100 open markets by liquidity (at this market's resolution)
Resolved
NO
A number that appears in the first 50,000 digits of pi (https://www.angio.net/pi/)
Resolved
NO
a cell phone number that someone responds to when it is called
Resolved
NO
Evenly divisible by the number of traders
Resolved
NO
Within 1000 of 100*(SF Giants season win total at the close date)
Resolved
NO
Exactly Ṁ413

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ242
2Ṁ165
3Ṁ93
4Ṁ67
5Ṁ49
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Within 1000 of the product of option values of any multiple-choice market in the top 100 open markets by liquidity (at this market's resolution)

@Nightsquared not entirely sure how to interpret this, could you please advise on how to resolve?

@Robincvgr Yeah I'm calculating it

@Nightsquared It resolves NO
More specifically, the calculation is: go to manifold browse, and sort open markets by liquidity. Open every multiple-choice market in the first 100 markets (sorted by liquidity), and multiply the value of all of the options (as percent, so i.e. a market with options at 50%, 30%, 19%, and .8% would have a value of 50*30*19*.8 = 22800). If any markets end up with a value within 1000 of the trading volume, this resolves yes.

a cell phone number that someone responds to when it is called

anyone know if this is a valid phone number in any country? if not, will resolve no soon

Less than Manifold's estimate for the number of Pennsylvania Trump voters in 2024 (I'll make a market for this momentarily)
bought Ṁ150 Less than Manifold's... YES

@Nightsquared The value associated with this is 3445227.48, so this resolves yes

Less than the number I will post in comments in response to this option
bought Ṁ2,400 Less than the number... YES

@Nightsquared 100000000000000000000

Less than the number I will post in comments in response to this option

@Robincvgr is this type of option ok?

Less than Manifold's estimate for the number of Pennsylvania Trump voters in 2024 (I'll make a market for this momentarily)

@Nightsquared number for this should be n*3,377,674/50, where n is the value of this market: https://manifold.markets/Nightsquared/how-many-votes-will-trump-receive-i

@Nightsquared This market close Sep 13. Your market for deciding runs to Nov 16. Does this market stay open until Nov 16 (so it is close to actual votes), or is it the value at time this market closes, or at some other time?

@ChristopherRandles it uses the value of my market at the time this market closes.

a cell phone number that someone responds to when it is called

@ZaneMiller @Robincvgr Might this depend on the country that it is attempted in? Knowing the country and range of number of digits in cell phone numbers in that country might be useful.

I can call +1 numbers, if anyone else is willing to judge numbers for other countries we can make those possible too

UK numbers start 07 followed by 8 or 9 further numbers. So not likely or even possible if adding a leading 0 is not allowed.

a substring of the digits of pi (yes within 200m digits, N/A otherwise)

@ZaneMiller pi is, uh, big, how do you suggest that i determine this

It's almost certainly true if you include enough digits, though that hasn't been proven yet.

mmm I feel like this should be N/Aed, i don't think a proof of pi's normality is coming by market close lmao

anyone have any input here?

An alternative would be to resolve yes if the number can be found and only N/A if cannot be found?

does 200M digits, it is highly likely to be yes it can be found

If that's the resolution method, can we change the text for the option to just the first 200M digits?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 sure, clarified

@Robincvgr tbh I was kind of just trolling (bc I was under the impression pi had been proven to include every possible sequence of digits)

bought Ṁ250 Answer #i10g93bxee NO

@Nightsquared @Robincvgr
Less than 400 * (Kamala's chance...
400*100 =40000 so that one can also resolve

Within 1000 of 100*(SF Giants season win total at the close date)

@vibhav @Robincvgr
Is the highest possible number that resolves yes 66 games +15 games so could reach 81 wins *100 + 1000 = 9100. We have passed this so can resolve no

30000-40000 also passed so can resolve no.

SF Giants season win total = games won in regular season ?
or points scored in winning games in regular season
or ...