Perpetrator was motivated by antisemitism

Perpetrator's primary motivation was a right-wing political cause

Perpetrator's primary motivation was non-political grievance against Shapiro

Perpetrator had personal, non-political connection to Shapiro or his family

Resolves once news reporting makes me at least 95% confident in the correct resolution. E.g. a conviction isn't necessary for identifying the perpetrator and their motives, a strong prime suspect is enough.

All options I am not at least 95% confident in resolve N/A at market close

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