♟️Manifold Plays Chess | ♔ White to consider draw offer (move 12)
15
1kṀ46k
resolved Mar 19
100%51%
Accept draw
49%
Reject draw

r1bq1b1r/pp1pkN1p/2p2n2/n2B2Bp/4P3/2PP4/PP3PPP/RN3RK1 b - - 1 12

Welcome to Manifold Plays Chess! It is currently white's turn to accept or reject Black's draw offer, and this is the current state of the board.

At an arbitrary time no earlier than 12 hours before listed close time, the answer at the highest percentage will resolve 100%, and the rest will resolve 0%. That will determine whether the draw is accepted.

If it is not accepted, it will be Black's turn to move again.

I may bet in the seconds immediately after market creation, but will not bet other than that.

(further detail: https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/manifold-plays-chess-white-to-move#92gihcvtj18)

Bet on the outcome here: https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/who-will-win-manifold-plays-chess?play=true

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Manifold Plays Go next???

Would a 9x9 game of go actually be a good idea? It'd be around the length of chess I think

@CollinMatthews Good idea, you should make it

@Robincvgr I'll try it! Might not be as consistent with the days as you were though

welp Bay have your 7.8k

@inaccessibles and again, the script to like my comment 0.1 seconds after it is posted

@inaccessibles I don’t understand your second message

@Bayesian I think they are joking that I like a bunch of comments I get very quickly

"this market will close at 8:02 PM CT +- a few minutes depending on when i get around to it. mayor late bin cellar rate" sha256 hash = eacf4f59e95a47c7efa4d05bc3f73c6333049bb2088001e02bbce64f16c2511b

opened a Ṁ4,000 YES at 51% order

what..

sold Ṁ6,080 YES

@Bayesian The 3500 buy was accidental

@Bayesian And besides, I was gonna lose anyway

opened a Ṁ4,000 NO at 85% order

@inaccessibles I think you got a shot, it worked last time

@Bayesian please don't be so annoying. Anyway I'm gonna go gamble off 42k of my balace in a coin flip market

filled a Ṁ3,943 YES at 55% order

@Bayesian I'll sell at 55%. Please fill the rest of my order

@inaccessibles do you wanna sell again ? at 40% maybe

opened a Ṁ3,158 YES at 36% order

Hey @Bayesian I am willing to sell all my Reject Draw shares at a price 1% lower than I bought them for. I put up a limit order that is exactly enough to sell all my shares. Please consider filling it so that I won't have to worry

@inaccessibles i'll sell at 55%

opened a Ṁ5,500 YES at 40% order

@Bayesian Selling at 40%

opened a Ṁ5,000 NO at 65% order

@Robincvgr would you be fine with posting a salted hash of the close date?

for example, the close date is a random time in the 12 hour window between noon and midnight on march 18 for some timezone. x is some uniform random number between 0 and 12. you can hash (x:randomstringofnumbers) so we can verify it later

@Bayesian sure i'll do that

@Bayesian eacf4f59e95a47c7efa4d05bc3f73c6333049bb2088001e02bbce64f16c2511b

bought Ṁ9,000 NO

@Bayesian please don't end the chess game by accepting a draw. More chess markets are good for the Manifold community

opened a Ṁ4,000 YES at 1.0% order

@inaccessibles we can just start a new game

@Bayesian There's no reason to accept a draw when you are winning. Black is up by one queen

@Robincvgr do you allow yourself the possibility of sharing the close time to anyone else before market close? as in is it the case that you do not promise not to provide another user the close time before market close

@Bayesian I do not tell other users the close time before market close. people have lobbied me for it before and i have refused. @snazzlePop can attest to this

@Robincvgr thanks! and you don't have alts participating in these markets? i'm guessing not but just asking to be more comfortable putting more mana into the markets

@Bayesian no, i don't have any alts

@inaccessibles tbf there was no reason for a lot of those moves, from a chess standpoint

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