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MANIFOLD
[planecrash] Will 100 wishes be successfully cast using artificial diamonds?
17
Ṁ100Ṁ2.9k
resolved Jul 24
Resolved
YES
This question resolves YES if at least 100 wishes are cast using artificial diamonds in 2022. This question resolves NO if this does not happen before the end of 2022, or if it becomes (in my opinion) sufficiently clear that this exploit will not scale to 100 wishes - for instance, if the material component of the Wish spell changes to require another element after 45 such spells are cast. This question will resolve N/A only if there is a significant hiatus in planecrash while this question remains unclear.
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As of https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1843008#reply-1843008 Current count is at least 100: - 30 Carissa - 25 Keltham - 15 Tarnish - 30 Pilar - 30 (presumed) Ione Even if Ione bluffed it, we are still at 100. I will resolve shortly, assuming we don't see shenanigans
Does it count if they are stolen and wished on by someone else
Prediction: rules as written says the diamond has to be worth 25,000gp, as artificial diamonds have a lower trade value or change market dynamics. This is the final data point that lets Keltham conclude he is in an RPG fanfic.
@MartinRandall The version of the setting they're in isn't rules-as-written, and has adjustments for sanity. I think "component worth X GP" has been largely ignored since the default prices imply an economy that doesn't make sense. The spellsilver component of crafting magic items was invented in part to make item creation not tied directly to gold. It could be the case that the gods say "hang on, this spell is supposed to be hard to cast" and change the rules, but Doylistically, I'm expecting his Wish plan to just work.
predictedNO
@horse Maybe. But it does have ten foot poles that cost more than ten foot ladders, so there are some concessions to rules as written. And wish diamonds don't especially make sense in the first place, since they're weird magic.
> Eliezer: Keltham tested that the increased weight of diamond dust (grains larger than the original seed crystals) behaved as expected for spells requiring diamond dust
predictedNO
@Gurkenglas that's a sensible early test. And it's reasonable to suppose that the diamond market doesn't change much after only 100 artificial diamonds, for the purpose of this question.
Is a wish still successful if it accidentally creates a massive explosion?
predictedNO
@MartinRandall I thought about including terms like that, but the point of the 100 Wish mark is that I don't anticipate the number being 103, but 4 of them were massive explosions. If there are 80 massive explosions, and 20 otherwise objectively successful wishes, I'll be deeply confused and might N/A the market. The goal of the market is to point at industrial-scale Wishing