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MANIFOLD
Will @shankypanky rope someone into a manifold addiction in the next three months?
12
Ṁ250Ṁ1.7k
resolved Mar 31
Resolved
YES

This market resolves yes if @shankypanky gets someone to start using manifold for more than 1 hour a day, for at least 5 days consecutively. It will be resolved based on self reporting primarily, but if there is significant debate we can check the 'buckets used' (I'll count 5 or more ten minute buckets a day as likely to mean they are spending more than an hour a day).

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Wait, I did all the work of manifolding and made 0 profit?!

@billga I feel like there's a lesson here

there's a fine line between pawn and Padawan

@shankypanky даa, существует

@Stralor Шах и мат

it ain't much, but it's honest work

@RobertCousineau officially it turns out @billga has actually met the criteria here and I just hope this means he will stop getting irritated when I'm prop betting while we're catching up in person.

@billga do you feel like you are spending more than an hour a day degenerately gambling?

@RobertCousineau I prefer to think of it as investment in our future

@billga lmao (it's true there's a direct correlation between my sociability and the acceptance of my time looking for/at topical markets)

@shankypanky Is there a market for that?

@billga lol we're meeting in a few minutes, we could write one...

I have a different questionable market idea actually - I'll tell you about it when I get there.

TiL what a futarchy is… I think

bought Ṁ111 YES

I'm renewing my efforts.

update: so far @billga is my best chance and it might be a long shot, although the soup markets managed to lure him in for a moment. 🍲

no one can resist the allure of soup.

Souuup…

@shankypanky any progress on this.. endeavour?

sold Ṁ7 YES

oh, you bought it down 3 days ago, so ig not

@Bayesian two months to go and it's a theoretically low bar but nothing to speak of atm

predictedYES

oh wait. this doesn't have to be someone who joined via my invite link? say I meet a dormant user or someone who joined for other reasons and my compulsion rubs off on them...

@shankypanky Manifold does not have to show them as having signed up by your invite link (I learned my lesson about trusting what Manifold reports).

If both they and you state you got them to start using it, and the story passes my sniff test, they count.

By this definition I'm an acute not chronic user. @shankypanky it's not an escape room. We are programmed to receive. You can check out any time you like. But.

an escape room, but I have to find someone to take my place before I can get out