This bounty will be paid out to the person (or persons) who makes a tool that:

1. analyzes my positions

2. compares them to other manifold users who have a real net worth and/or a good track record for predictions

3. highlights significant disagreements

I will use some level of personal judgement while resolving - I have to actually like the tool for me to give you the bounty, but if it is actually a good tool I am happy to up the bounty (tentative expected limit of 200 USD or 25,000 mana). Feel free to ask for clarification if you are interested.

I am interested in this tool existing so I can easily find other users to make large bets with.

• Update 2025-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Tool Calculation Methods:

  • Holdings Evaluation: Evaluate positions using the percentages at which holdings were bought rather than just the nominal yes/no amounts.

  • Limit Orders Inclusion: Include limit orders in the analysis, particularly if they are within a specified range of the current probability.

  • Overall Methodology: The approach described in sections two and three (e.g., calculating agreement/disagreement scores) remains valid and should be integrated along with the above adjustments.