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Poll has been created: https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/is-irisigb-attempting-to-produce-an

@RobertCousineau resolving "No" based on the results of the poll, as described in the description.

As far as I know, Iris's last public post on LK-99 is https://mercurialbadger.tumblr.com/post/732422958574911488 (2023-10-28). As far as I understand, it is pointing out (with photograph of her own experiment and reference to literature) that PbO is a glass former and discussion of crystal structure should be questioned since there may not be any crystal structure to discuss (glass is not crystal).

Any updates? I saw tons of claims and no samples or useful output, no papers, just promises and trolls. And now iris is done with LK99 posting?

Do we know anything?

Request for pronoun change: Iris uses she/her (source: https://cohost.org/MercurialBadger), so you can use "her credibility" instead of "their credibility".

Thanks!

I would bet everything that they are a troll. Not sure about a poll though. People are so gullible..

@lukres keep in mind that the people who stick around Manifold till January are likely less gullible than the average superconductor commentor, and Iris will have had a lot more time to not do anything of substance.

@RobertCousineau I'm surprised this is so high as well.

She strongly reads as 'passionate crank' to me, as opposed to troll.

@jacksonpolack Making big claims and not following up looked like a signature troll move to me, but Yeah, it now seems more like a huge amount of arrogance relative to competence.

She seems to be on a crusade to vindicate some Soviet science buried by bad „overfunded Western labs” and that motivated her LK99 related posts.

@lukres this seems right:

She seems to be on a crusade to vindicate some Soviet science buried by bad „overfunded Western labs” and that motivated her LK99 related posts.

I guess the question is whether that's "bad faith". I think it is, since she's falsifying results along the way. Having an agenda I find distasteful isn't the same as bad faith, but the fake floaty rock picture definitely was.

Any speculators of when Iris will provide an update, you may like this question:

When will @iris_IGB provide an update on "ZERO R TRANSITION DETECTED" | Manifold

communists bad, end of story

I'm like 99% sure Iris is not acting in good faith, but I believe a poll of manifold users will disagree with me, so I'm not going to bet on this if the resolution criteria is a popularity poll.

How do you intend to establish if they have acted in good faith?

@Soren edited the description - is that more clear?

@RobertCousineau ATM I don't see anything in the description which describes what evidence you will use to determine whether or not they are "acting in good faith." How will you know if they are?

@Soren I will run a poll on Manifold (posted in the comments/discord) asking the question in the description.

@Soren I don't know of a good way to resolve this market outside of that (maybe keynesian beauty contest, but I'm not sure a good way to run one).

@RobertCousineau Oh okay, I see