Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if any organized protest or demonstration occurs at or near Sydney Harbour fireworks viewing areas during the event on December 31, 2025. This includes the main fireworks displays at 9pm and midnight, as well as the surrounding vantage points and public spaces where crowds gather to watch.

Resolution will be determined by credible news reports, official police statements, or documented evidence of protests. The market resolves NO if no protests occur during the event window.

Background

Sydney will commemorate the victims of the Bondi Beach massacre on New Year's Eve with changes to the Sydney Harbour Bridge fireworks display, observing a moment of silence and increasing security, emphasizing unity against antisemitism and promoting a message of hope and healing. NSW Police will deploy over 2,500 officers – both uniformed and plain clothes – during the largest police operation of the year.

NSW Premier stated that a protest in Sydney at the moment would "rip our community apart," noting that "a mass demonstration in this combustible situation, with our multicultural community, could light a flame that would be impossible to extinguish." However, the world-famous fireworks will be proceeding as planned.

Considerations

The context of heightened tensions following the December 14 Bondi Beach attack creates an unusual environment for this event. While authorities have discouraged large demonstrations, the heavy police presence and global attention on the event could either deter or potentially attract protest activity.